I think the good news is alredy in the stock. To make good money from here on in AMAT, you have to be a good trader, IMO over the next 4 months or so.
I posted on the the Art of Investing thread that I've been in 40% junk bond, 40% cash, and 20% stocks for almost a week now. This is mostly because when I notice my stocks are not going anywhere, and I can't figure the market out with good conviction, I choose to stay out. We don't have to be doing something in the market everyday.
As for the general market, I don't expect a Fed tightening soon (so this may give a short term boost to the bonds and the stocks). But I don't expect the interest rates to fall much either. There are 3 major cases for the bond yields to rise: First the global healing means that the interest rates don't have to be artifacially low. Second, as the stock market moves higher, bond yields will have to rise as well because fewer and fewer investors will be willing to put their money in the bond market (besides me, is anyone else here invested in bonds? I doubt there are many out there). Third, on the whole the global crisis has been very good for the US (Gottfried, I have not fully read the article that you posted, so I don't know if my reasons are the same as the author's. They are probably close). So the foriegn markets are now more of a competition for US, than they have been in the past two years.
So all in all, I expect the interest rates to remain high (unless the market crashes or there is another global crisis) and the market to be rocky at best. Now if I knew much more details than I do, I would be having a big position rather than staying on the sidelines <g>.
Sun "almost there" Tzu |
