Hello Bob Simpson;
I've found that it helps not to view MRV as a networker. Originally in opto-electonics, it added the LAN; it would back off from the LAN and expand posthaste in another direction were a shift of focus to become desirable. Or it would triumph in a commodity environment by becoming a discounter. Either eventuality is two or three years down the track. Meanwhile, there's a diversification philosophy which emulates H-P and expansion in various directions continues apace: telecoms equipment sales to Newbridge, cable modem components to General Instrument, etc. Management is awefully quick on its feet, military duty in Judaea taught these guys their smarts. By the looks of it (Herrn Simpson, haben Sie schon einmal in "www.nbase.de" hereingeschaut?), the advance into Germany is under superb management. The acquired Fibronics customer base and associated projects are blue-chip industrials, government departments, major banks, etc., all IP and Gigabit prospects. Expect Germany to deliver bottom-line results by Q2. Hampshire Securities analyst Rao got it right when he says MRV got a great deal when it acquired Fibronics; since much of his 1997 bottom-line optimism derives from that assessment, stockholders who stay with it are on track.
Rao is blasting from the past (Nov96) however when he says MRV will go to 38 by end 97. Tyro's daemon says max 28. We are not out of the 3COM woods yet, near term expect more pressure until the momentum run-up to Q1 begins in, then a rise to 23-25.
The caveat: expect a Dow correction sometime in spring in response to falling repatriated earnings (the high dollar).
But the economy is strong. This is essential. The recession of 74 was oil-price related. There is no recession on the horizon as world markets continue to open, it would take an international political contretemps of major proportions to bring one on. Stay tuned to CNN. |
