Arthur,
There are many who think the smart money will sell in advance of earnings and wait and see what happens. Worst case scenario is that they get back on board a more expensive train. However, at least they know the train is headed in the right direction.
Your point is well taken, I respect Kemble greatly and wish I had the foresight to get into DELL when he did. However, I did not. My basis is just over 40 with a sizable amount margined. Therefore, your point is one which I respect. I am not sure if you were on this thread during the last earnings period. I was a lurker at the time and read many posts similar to the ones I am reading now. Even in the face of Niles warning, many members of the thread, me included, did not want to believe DELL would disappoint. Thinking MD would have surely told his flock. He did not -- and the rest is history. Those that sold at 3:59 p.m. looked like geniuses (remember our friend Voltaire, who sold most his DELL position prior to earnings, while at the same time touting the stock as a great hold post-earnings).
This quarter is different and I do expect DELL to blow out estimates. However, the street's reaction to that could be opposite of what each of us would wish. Remember, other tech companies have released positive numbers only to open lower the following morning.
DELL's case may be different, given its last disappointing quarter. I would anticipate a bit of a relief rally for several days post-earnings as new money comes back to DELL, then a small pullback on profit taking.
I know you see a selloff. Do you believe the May 19 open will gap down? How much selling on the news would you anticipate? In your opinion, would it take .19 plus to prevent selling on the news?
ForeverDell
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