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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth
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To: NickSE who wrote (41450)5/17/1999 10:58:00 PM
From: Broken_Clock  Read Replies (1) of 86076
 
PEI latest... pei-intl.com

<<Those that expect some message from God that will provide ample warning
that the high is in place have never studied the history of markets. Those
who think that as long as the fundamentals remain sound, then there is no
risk of a stock market crash have also not read their history. In our
special report we have addressed these issues in detail. In the limited
space provided here, it is sufficient to state that at the peak in 1929,
car sales were at record highs as was the case with corporate earnings.
Mutual fund cash levels also stood at a record high in August of 1929.
When the crash began, General Motors fell by 75% within less than 6 weeks
while earnings and sales stood at record highs. The media came out stating
emphatically that NOTHING had changed and that there was NO SANE REASON to
sell stocks! The press simply chalked it up to insane people who sold in a
panic without reason. At best, the only fundamental that one could point
to was a rise in interest rates by Britain. So much cash had left Europe
and poured into the US, that severe shortages of cash were developing
outside the US economy – particularly in Europe. The rise in rates in
Britain was viewed by some as bearish for the US because it would force
foreign investors to sell and go home. We have not quite reached that
level of international capital concentration in the US, but we may still
face that between now and 2003 and in the process, such a trend would
cause the Dow Jones Industrials to rise to touch the face of the Wall
Street gods somewhere around 19,000-20,000. This depends entirely upon the
fate of the dollar.>>
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