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Technology Stocks : Ampex Corporation (AEXCA)
AMPX 10.12-1.8%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (8476)5/17/1999 11:04:00 PM
From: Carl R.  Read Replies (1) of 17679
 
Apparently my estimates for revenue by TVoW were significantly low.
I allowed only $200k per quarter for production, and it appears that
last year the production revenue of Gardy-McGrath (now a division
of TVoW) was $4 million. Therefore add about $800,000 per quarter
to my revenue figures, which will significantly lower the PSR,
perhaps to a level you find more interesting. This would make my
revenue estimates:

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q100
TVow $1.1 $1.5 $2.3 $3.8 $5.7
Reiter $1.0 $1.4 $2.0 $2.8 $3.9
AENTV $.5 $ .7 1.0 1.5 2.3
TOTAL $2.6 $3.6 $5.3 $8.1 $11.9

AXC @51% $1.3 $1.8 $2.7 $4.1 $6.1
In-house 0 0 .1 .5 1.3
Total AXC $1.3 $1.8 $2.8 $4.6 $7.4

With the current market cap at about $260 million, and allowing
$125 million for non-internet properties, the trailing PSR based
on the current run rate is now 104 quarters, or 26 on an annual
basis. It is 8 times my projected next 12 months internet revenue.
Keep in mind that unlike most current internet IPOs, all three
divisions have been marginally profitable in the past. All three
are now expanding quickly even if it means losses in the meantime,
but all three have a business model that has been proven to
translate to profitability.

Returning to my comparison with other internet video operations the
comparison now looks like:

Sales Mkt Growth ovr Annualized Profit
Q1-99 Cap Q1-98 PSR Q1-99
RNWK $23.5 $5900 88% 63 (.7)
BCST 10.3 4300 127% 104 (3.8)
IATV .4 560 11% 350 (7.4)
VDAT 1.1 184 943% 42 (1.1)
AXC's share 1.3 135 300% 26 ???

Once again, this is based on my best guess as to the status of the
various divisions at the current time.

Carl
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