Dave-
Though I share your disillusionment with the current state of affairs, I believe that the reason that we are where are is a matter of risk.
In the last several months, we've seen no "new news" that would be sexy enough to make investors go nuts to get on board, and there have been several issues surfaced that have demonstrated the risks associated with this business. Specifically, I refer to the Nori deal breaking up, the perceived increased likelihood of other deals similarly breaking up on the whim of a big pharma, the FTC breaking up P2 (or others), timetables slowing down/additional testing being necessary, litigation risk, product viability risk, and market size shrinkage. Apparently, many were factoring these risk factors in at low risk levels, and now they are changing them to higher risk. I, for one, believe that this level of risk is built into the 30-35% discount rate factor I use. Also, as we hit each milestone and the most important factor - the extent to which ICEs work and are truly IMPROVED - is validated, I see that as stripping away big layers of the risk.
So while I personally disagree with the market's interpretation of things, that is clearly what's happened, as we've gone from being Wall St. darlings to the doghouse. For those of us who are long term and care to analytically judge at what's really happened, this is a SCA-REEEEEAMING buy opportunity. For those of us that need the stock to be at $XXX in X months, or weeks, or days (like me with those extra 90 May calls), this just doesn't look like the place to be. For those that want to look at the merits of the business model, we're here and waiting. For those who need news every month to keep themselves motivated, they probably should look elsewhere.
Like I always say, I just want my $12 in 2003-2004. Whether the antihistamine part of that comes from Nori or DCL or Allegra or Zyrtec2, I'm not so concerned. Sure, we can sit here and debate the advantages of increased Nori sales at the detriment of DCL, but in the end if DCL is a category killer, I'll take my 8% royalty and sleep well (no pun intended).
This too, shall pass...... |
