At home now, giving it some more thought. Have you noticed on the one year chart how back in Oct and Nov the stock ran upwards dramatically with relatively low volume moving it? I kind of visualize the stock movement in three parts, Oct-Dec being a strongly uplifting period, Jan-Apr a rising but flattening period, a top showing on April 22nd so far, and Apr 22nd to today with a slight downward bias. Many more high volume days in the Jan, Feb and Apr months than in the preceding quarter. I also noticed many more large volume days in April than in March having less and less of a lasting uplifting influence on the stock generally. March really didn't have any high volume days. April having the most high volume days has had the least lasting general upward price movement although it did have a nice short term move in the early part of the month. Not a pretty picture. So now, deep into Q2 we sit here poised for the future, with troubling talk about inflationary factors affecting the market, and the stock is in a short term down move currently.
On the longer term chart, the stock has really done well rising 3X from its Aug/Sept lows, but the rate of improvement has really flattened off these past couple of months. A declining tops line sort of connects the last two major historical peaks (about 2/6/97 48+, and 9/20/97 38+ ) with the April 22nd peak of $22.+. This suggests an upper limit which one might perceive as an upper limit barrier, or more severe overhead resistance. Having recently "touched" this declining tops line, I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it pull back down away from it before it has another go at running up and breaking through it.
I think this current down move could continue. If it moves below 17, I'd look at that as a troubling sign that more severe lower numbers could come quickly moving it towards the lower teens. If it holds 17 you might get some of that spring action you were mentioning. If some springing happens look for the declining tops line barrier. If it hurdles that, then its off to the races and maybe your 30 number will be hit otherwise failure at crossing that declining tops barrier would suggest heading back into the high teens again. 40 is a bit harder to foresee just yet.
Anyway, like I said before, bwdik? Take it as free advice, worth no more and probably less than what you paid for it.<g>
Regards, Mike |
