From RB board:
<<By: arkural
Reply To: None
Tuesday, 18 May 1999 at 8:57 AM EDT
Post # of 2425
Briguy's UPDATED IDTC Technical Analysis...
Monday, 17 May 1999 at 3:58 PM EDT
For all you number lovers, here you go...
***10 DAY MOVING AVERAGE***
27.38 5/17/99
27.73 1 week ago
28.71 2 weeks ago
28.19 3 weeks ago
27.40 1 month ago
***50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE***
23.83 5/17/99
22.29 1 week ago
20.83 2 weeks ago
19.22 3 weeks ago
17.86 4 weeks ago
***200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE***
18.58 5/17/99
18.46 1 week ago
18.42 2 weeks ago
18.39 3 weeks ago
18.33 4 weeks ago
As you can see, the 50 day and 200 day moving averages have continued to move up. This is a
bullish sign if your a medium to long term investor. However, the 10 day moving average has
dropped- not substantially- which isn't exactly bullish if your a short termer.
I caution you, this does NOT mean you should go out and sell your shares. You need to examine
all TA before you decide to do that. IDTC could rocket up on a moments notice! Oh, and keep in
mind, medium term and long term TA on IDTC shows a strong buy!
Anyway, the moving averages allow us to pinpoint where support and resistance is...
SUPPORT
1st Support: $23.83
2nd Support: $18.58
Very near support which can easily be broken as the last several days have proved:
10 day EMA-- $27.38
RESISTANCE
Strong Resistance: 52 week high-- $35.37
Weak Resistance: $28.71
VOLUME: (as of 5-14)
3 day volume average: 968,066
7 day volume average: 824,314
14 day volume average: 911,228
21 day volume average: 1,189,076
13 week volume average: 1,500,000
52 week volume average: 978,100
Using the above numbers as a guide, it appears to me IDTC has been "out of play" recently. It's
also apparent (IMO) that big institutional traders have NOT been trading IDTC recently either.
We've had several days of very low volume numbers. And todays volume isn't exactly stellar.
The way I see it, this can go both ways. If institutions were buying right now, the stock would
probably be in the 30's. If they were selling heavily, the stock would probably drop to 25 or below.
But neither is really happening. What is happening? Can you say, "hurry up and wait and 'who
knows'?"
I do know one thing. Like I said after IDTC released its news about being in talks with AOL and
ATHM- the street is sitting on the sidelines right now. If you haven't figured it out, the news about
the bond consent was already built into the stock price- that's obvious. And the news about IDTC
talking with AOL and ATHM was predictably NOT going to get the street excited about IDTC.
Why?
All the hype on Yahoo or any other board won't change the fact that the street wants FACTS, not
hypotheticals. Until IDTC inks a deal with someone, interest from big INSTITUTIONAL traders will
be minimal. I would expect IDTC to continue trading in a narrow range like it has been for the last
few weeks until some CONCRETE facts come out about the corporate investors, IPO and other
things.
IF some news hits the streets about corporate investors ACTUALLY investing in IDTC instead of
talking about it, or if some concrete IPO news comes out, or if we see some upgrades, then it
would be a safe assumption that IDTC will pop several points or more. Until then, you'll just have
to remain patient. For now, the street has spoken and will always dictate what happens, not you
or I.
ON BALANCE VOLUME: (Last week) For a definition of OBV, click here:
investor.msn.com
Friday (5-14).....................(neg)1,599,800
Thursday (5-13)...................(neg) 749,300
Wednesday (5-12)..................(neg) 229,900
Tuesday (5-11)....................(pos)1,304,400
Since last Tuesday, the numbers have again turned negative. Notice since last Tuesday, the
trend is pointing DOWN. Remember, the thing that is important here is the direction of the graph,
not the numbers. As you can see, the numbers on the negative side have grown the last few
trading days.
Folks, the is a constant repetitive pattern with IDTC. It's called the "buy on rumor, sell on news"
syndrome. Last Tuesday, IDTC came out with (GOOD)news regarding the bonds and
AOL/ATHM discussions. And once again, the minute the news hit, people sold into strength.
EVERY TIME IDTC has come out with good news, investors immediately sell and take money off
the table. And the above numbers confirm this pattern once again.
Lets look at another analysis that could support the above analysis...
MONEY FLOW: For a description, click here:
investor.msn.com
May 14......................NEGATIVE $43,489,425
May 13......................NEGATIVE $20,206,988
May 12......................NEGATIVE $ 5,631,325
May 11......................POSITIVE $38,479,800
Once again, what this tells us is since May 11 when IDTC released its latest news about the
bonds and AOL/ATHM, money has once again left the stock. The good news is, it isn't a large
amount! It does however confirm the pattern of "buy on rumor, sell on news" to which the
daytraders have become accustomed to. IMO, daytraders continue to play this stock beautifully!
Who can blame them? Not me! The pattern with IDTC is just too obvious!
RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX: For a description, click here:
investor.msn.com
This is one indicator I especially like to use as it gives us a very good idea whether or not the
stock is overbought or over sold.
As of Friday, May 14:
RSI of IDTC is 55.9 (1 month time window)
At 55.9, IDTC has lots of room to move in either direction. To give you an idea, the RSI was
85.56 on 4/12/99- clearly pointing to an overbought condition. And as such, investors locked in
their gains.
My take on the current number is this. IDTC RSI numbers have been floating around in the high
40's to mid 50's for some time now. I'm no expert, but based on all the numbers including the
RSI, it is apparent IDTC is consilidating right now. IDTC is not overbought, but not oversold
either. The vast majority like me are just sitting on their shares waiting for some
CONCRETE/FACTUAL NEWS! To which you all probably say, "DUH! Tell me something I don't
know!"
Speaking of Relative Strength, the Relative Strength (Different from the RSI) of IDTC is looking
very good!
RELATIVE STRENGTH
3 Months: 98 (up from 96 2 weeks ago)
6 Months: 88 (up from 82 2 weeks ago)
12 Months: 58
These numbers measure the price performance of a stock in comparison to all other stocks.
Many analysts believe that stocks with strong and improving relative strength tend to continue to
outperform all other stocks, all other things being equal.
The figure is obtained by calculating the percent price change of a stock over a particular time
period and ranking it against all other stocks on a scale of 1 to 100, with 100 being best. Stocks
that are ranked from 70 to 100 are considered to have good relative strength, while stocks
ranked less than 50 are considered to have poor relative strength.
As you can see, IDTC is looking very strong these last 3 months!
But, and there's always a flip side. Looking at the price performance of IDTC can give us a more
detailed picture of how IDTC has performed over various periods of time. The numbers below
are a percentile that ranges from 0-99 with 99 being the best. How has IDTC peformed recently?
The numbers below tell us...
4 week....-0.2 (2 weeks ago it was 59.4)
13 week...88.0 (2 weeks ago it was 90.0)
26 week...37.7 (2 weeks ago it was 74.4)
52 week...-15.9 (2 weeks ago it was Negative 7.1)
Here's the chart and how IDTC compares..
IDTC**S&P 500**Rank In Industry**Industry Rank
4 Week -0.2...... -3.5....... 41....... 35
13 Week 88.0...... 72.4....... 90....... 43
26 Week 37.7...... 12.6....... 52....... 83
52 Week -15.9..... -31.3...... 34....... 89
YTD ....78.0...... 60.0....... 80....... 75
As you can see, the last 4 weeks IDTC has NOT performed very well. As a matter of fact, if we
want to be honest with ourselves, its done very poor (in comparison to other stocks)! However, in
the last 13 weeks, IDTC has been one of the best performing stocks on the street! Remember,
back in January, this was a $9 stock!! So if you got in back then, your doing quite well!
BOLLINGER BANDS:
I like what I see here! The bands have tightened nicely the last few weeks which points to less
volatility and can also point to the possibility of a substantial breakout to the upside in the near
future. The price channel has also narrowed/grown smaller which indicates less volatility. Folks,
these bands are telling me that IDTC could see a major move upwards if some TERRIFIC
NEWS hits the streets. Any upgrades, IPO announcements, or Corporate Investor news and
IDTC could take off! Stay tuned...
MACD: Currently bearish, but could move bullish in an instant. Not too concerned here.
MACD HISTOGRAM: Definately bearish and pointing to a short term sell until today. Once
again, it's not a perfect science as IDTC is up slightly today.
STOCHASTIC: Bearish. I'm going to ignore this signal though as clearly IDTC is NOT
overbought! I think the charts may be WRONG on this one!
And for more TA, click here. As you can see, currently the majority of Technical Indicators are
pointing to a BUY on IDTC...
equities.barchart.com
Anyway, there you have it. The last few weeks have been tough on IDTC, no doubt about.
Frankly, IDTC has been one big dissappointment IMO! But, there are just too many positive
things waiting in IDTC's boardroom that make this a hold if you own it and a buy if you don't. Any
great news and you can throw out all the TA!
What IDTC really needs right now is a couple upgrades. The reason is simple! The more
analysts following a stock, the more investors IDTC will attract! More coverage ='s more visibility
='s more buyers ='s price going UP!
BTW, For those of you who visit my TABLE regulary, my stance has NOT changed. I (me, Briguy.
This does not mean YOU should) plan on dumping ALL of my 3500 shares (900 @ $32) when
the big news hits. Whether its at 40, 60, or 80- I'm dumping and will then short IDTC after the
news hits, and then buy right back in and go long!!
Why, you ask? Nothing exists out there to tell me to do otherwise. I have just illustrated above
how IDTC repetitively sells off after news. This pattern has gone on for 2 years now! I doubt that
will change now. Unless someone flat out buys IDTC, count on the same thing happening again.
Regardless of what I say, do what makes you comfortable. But consider this a friendly warning;
don't be decieved, there will be a TON, and I mean a TON of sellers when the news hits. Be
careful and stay smart and don't let any hype about IDTC hitting 80 or 100 blind you. You sell
when you feel comfortable- not when I or someone else tells you.
Briguy
P.S. Prediction... IDTC will EASILY meet or beat estimates when they announce earnings. MSN,
ZACKS, THOMPSONS, DARBYS, STANDARD AND POORS, MULTEX, and many more all
say earnings are "EXPECTED" (does NOT mean will happen) May 21. But a self appointed
expert has said the first week in June. I can't disagree with either position because no one
knows for sure. But when they do, the numbers should be very solid! An upgrade could possibly
follow soon after earnings. Stay tuned...>> |
