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Biotech / Medical : Neurobiological Tech (NTII)
NTII 0.00010000.0%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Apache Indian who wrote (546)5/18/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: BRAVEHEART  Read Replies (1) of 1494
 
Apache Indian,

I hate to disagree with you but in this case I don't think you will mind very much. That's if I am right.

First let's consider the buyout option. Let's assume the $1.75 ( which was supposedly turned down months ago ) buyout rumor were correct. That you would get $1.75 per share with a buy out. Tell me which would you choose. Door #one or Door #two. Well let's tease you with Door #two a tad bit.

Let's assume NTII cuts a deal with Big Pharma. Let's assume it involves significant cash up-front. Not one million but let's say oh 3 to 5 million. Plus milestone & royalty payments. All this for a marketing & distribution agreement for two of NTI's three P-2 clinicals.

Any idea on the volume that would take place on that day. Well let's reflect. The last two times NTI traded to $1.75 and $1.55 based on news events the volume was 350,000 and 250,000 shares respectively. Now imagine if NTI's shareprice is say $1.5 on the day of news.

Hmmm. I can think of a few recent collaborations for R&D molecule based collaborations. Two of which involved around a million cash up-front. CNSI & IMGN. Both traded above $2.50. Both have a considerably larger number of shares in float. Neither was for advanced clinicals.

So imagine say 1,500,000 shares in one day. Can you understand why I would rather not see a buyout. Heck I expect at the very least $2.25. Actually $3 plus is extremely probable IMO. So if on the day a collaboration is announced you promise to sell me your shares at $1.75 pre-open I will gladly reap the difference. Of course if I am wrong and it only trades to $1.5 I am out .25. But I'll take that risk.

PS: Apache NTI is likely to seek relisting post collaboration. Legitimacy is around the corner. I personally have orders out there for another 15,000 shares.

Hang in There
Jeffrey
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