|
Arik -- In my two cents worth opinion market here is in no win situation, if the Fed does nothing until 30th June new stories every day on strength of econonmy will impact the market, if it raises the rates we may see that after some test of supports we may see a clear divergence, internets and Techs may take off whereas cyclicals and SPM goes thru a test of 1292 area.. On internets and net we may find some selling but 600 will probably hold, so here we are in a tricky situation and like always I am trying to understand a phenomenon which is tricky but interesting to play, for fun I have this trade on just now 1320 May long puts for a drop and to see that I don't have to pay a dime more than what is already on the table these puts are paid by the premium of 1250 short puts of June, if market falls big I make money on this May immeidately if it does not I will loose on long puts of May but make some money on shorts puts of June, I will get out of Junes at 1352-58 area and reverse the trade, and to add a little flavor to my trade I have longed the bond for Sept contract 122's, if rates are increased we may see a rally if unaffected market may think this as a vote of confidence by Fed on state of inflation, so here I have a trade where I have many legs I sit here and think, and enjoy the thrills of the world greatest market, I am in it and love every bit of it, the best part is to call it and try to understand it the more I know the more I learn of my inadequacies... |
