el: Charming ! I don't know what you mean by "patented twisting/grasping m.o." but it doesn't sound very pleasant. I shall take it as an expression of your impatience with logic.
COMPAQ fell in early 1998 not because of market conditions but because of COMPAQ-specific problems having to do with inventory overhang, uncertainties about the DEC acquistion and poor profit performance. As you know, it moved from, $23 to $38 and back down again, with several undulations along the way, and then from $23 to $51 intraday, before falling back to $22. (You can argue that it was caused by a market drop in the Fall and then by a market rise, but so what?). It is now on its way up again. Since the original company specific causes of these series of events have been dealt with by the company to a large extent, the current rise can reasonably be considered to be a consequence. It is reasonable to take a two year view of a series of events which always had a two year frame of reference. When the price closes at $50 or higher, that will indicate that we are movng out of this two year series of events and it is perfectly rational to say, as I did, that the measurement from the low of $23 in early 1998 to the high of $55 when it comes (and I say it will be before the end of 1999) has taken 18-20 months. |
