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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis

SPY 683.47

+0.6%

Nov 28 4:00 PM EST

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To: shasta23 who wrote (14306)	5/18/1999 4:39:00 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) of 99985

Stefan, i agree that the market's reaction is a somewhat encouraging sign. but i don't believe that much headway will be made before the picture on inflation becomes clearer. until then i would expect the market to stay nervous and directionless, with perhaps a little downward bias. considering how overvalued the market is historically this is certainly no time to be reckless. i am very concerned about the fact that there is so much bullishness out there, specifically on the part of investment newsletter writers, wall street strategists and fund managers. the bear market in bonds doesn't inspire a lot of caution, and that is very worrisome. also mutual fund cash levels are extremely low. in the past this combination of factors has usually led at least to severe intermediate term corrections. any good news on the inflation front could of course lead to a blow-off, this possibility can not be ruled out. but i am not looking for the market to trend sideways for long. too many stock charts seem poised for some kind of a breakout. regards, hb

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