I can't disagree with you on the valuation argument, except that I believe these stocks, like msft and csco, will always be expensive as long as they are perceived to be winners in their space..
Check out any of those stocks at any point at least one year after they became public and show me where they had 4 digit P/E's. Now that's expensive!
Regarding future competition...I don't see it as a factor to be concerned with as long as yahoo stays on the ball......Its all about brand name.
The tough thing about being a portal is that the user does not have to choose one over another. Bottom line you choose only one (maybe two) ISP's. When it comes to operating systems, almost everybody operates under one, usually Windows. But when it comes to portals. Everybody uses a few. Sometimes quite a few. Kind of like TV. And no network stays on top. Ratings are always changing depending on programming. With portals, it will all be about content. I don't know what the next big thing will be in the portal business, but the spooky thing about it, at least from Yahoo's standpoint, is the partners that some of the other portals have. GO with ABC, Disney and ESPN. Snap with NBC and GE. MSN with Microsoft, the leader in software. If any of these guys come up with anything special, watch out. I gotta believe that Yahoo's price has every rosey scenario written into it. No room for a misstep. If there is any slip, the downside in my mind is huge. What's the upside from here?
By the way. Infoseek failing? Exactly how do you measure that? |
