biggest concern going foward
my biggest concern is the long bond and how it will react to the bias..imo with the hike in intrest looming the long bond will have no trouble going to 6.0+ if this happens alot of money flow will dry up in the equity market and flow into bonds,,there are so many ifs looming and if another strong inflation indicator occurs it will have a dramatic affect,on the up side if no inflation indacator occurs the upside will be limited due to the bias looming over our head,,i am right now about 80% cash because i see no catalysts taking us higher and a number that could take us lower i.e.cpi,bias to tighten,,another concern is the dell numbers,,,i currently still hold aol,msft,att,and am going long as in 25 years long so am not worried about fluctuating price,,,i will look for real bargains as in amzn 60,,or i will not buyuntil the smoke clears and see a more substantial upside ,,i don't mind paying a higher price for a more stable upside,,for all those with amzn equity i would suggest atleast taking a defensive position by buting possibly 80 jan 2000 puts just to hedge your equity or sell some call contracts to maximze your equity while this bias looms,,i would only suggest this if you have equity to hedge and not to play the put as a speculative investment,,
i think we will see a spike the next three days as call options expire on friday,,,
good trading and be carefull going forward |
