Well, it may be the beginning of a long-term up trend, but I'm sorry to report that I've started doing something I haven't done in 2 years: selling into this latest rally. (That was me selling at 55) :-(
It's not that I'm bearish on HLIT; on the contrary, I think they will do great. Whoever bought from me this afternoon will probably make some money. But here's why I'm getting off the up elevator:
1) Buy-and-hold worked very well for me with HLIT at 15, but not at 55. At 15, I could see the stock doubling (although I never thought it would triple). At 55, I have a hard time seeing this kind of upside.
2) I'm jittery about the market in general. I think the mood has changed. Many of the leaders have been going sideways for several months now. And the Fed's latest "bias" towards tightening is likely to keep a lid on the "irrational exuberance" we've grown to love.
3) I hate holding tech stocks during the summer. So many Augusts I've hit my head against the wall and said "Why didn't I dump this loser back in May?" Sell techs at H&Q, it always works.
4) HLIT has been a market anomaly - a small value stock outperforming the CSCOs and YHOOs of the world. Besides my Internet speculations, it's my biggest winner. At market tops (see #2 and #3) my rule is to sell the high-flyers and dump the losers, but keep the middle for a while and see what's going on. The high-flyers like HLIT have a long way to fall; the losers never got the smart money anyway; and the middle keeps me in the action in case I'm wrong.
So what techs am I still holding? CSCO, LU, LSI, and about 50% cash. Looking for a good entry point for MSFT (around 70) and DELL (around 35). AMZN is dead meat. The rest of the YHOOs are looking mighty pale.
Like Mike Royko would say, "I may be wrong, but I doubt it". Have fun, kids. See ya in October! |
