Mr Barron, since everyone wants their 15 sec of fame and
since advertising your bias since to be in as well<g>...
here is my take on the N225 and the DOW.
We may see them part ways here as the N225 rally was short lived . Earnings worries here in Japan are right at the front door and should move the market more than the Fed which has now announced its "bias", whatever that means, participants always take that and make up what they think it should mean anyway, and that will be one less thing the Japanese investing "public" needs to worry about now that the cat is out of the bag. Therefore, I see some small technical bounces up followed by longer slow eroding down moves thru June, my predictions, if I am wrong , go ahead posters, laugh out loud and post so, but don't go and say I lost money because of him, 'cause you would only be taking advice on the Web, a big no-no we all know that...
I don't know where it will go exactly in the next few days (therefore sold out 15 minutes ago) and will reevaluate later. After 4 days of declines, could we be set up for an up day on the N225? Hey, everyone can now be an analyst for 15 seconds, an elite club to be sure...<g>.
No really, when earning seasons goes full swing and everyone realizes how deep down in the hole everybody really is, we are heading south (i am talking about the N225 here). My bets for positive surprises would be on anything to do with cellular technology, cellular providers or telcos here, but they are probably fully "valued" already... As far as the makers of such equipment are concerned, most of them are way too big with their hands in too many pies that even when a business unit is doing fantastic it still can't pull up the barge up river. (Matsushita Elec's profits down 85% for examle, even though they are selling cell phones like mad, a/c units, TVs, etc are way down...)
One other thing I had forgotten to include in my last post. So far the Japanese government, when confronted with negative rumors has always either denied that the allegations made by the investigative press had any truth or fed the public massaged numbers and figures to try to do damage control. Never has it come up front with a realistic statement (come to think of it, I know a president of a very powerful country that does that too, maybe he studied here...) in order to try to preempt the charges. The approach has always been , deny, deny deny, try to cover up first and then reveal slowly only what they are pressured to reveal, the whole time hoping it will go away, then refuse to take responsability for anything (Look at the NEC/Dept of Defense scandal/ -AIDS/tainted blood scandal- LTCB- and MOF scandals
.
A bit wordy here, but the whole point is that there is probably a lot more to some of the current negative rumors out there (Postal Savings to me would rank at the top of the list) judging by how other scandals were first handled by the LDP in the past.
later
sg |
