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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club

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To: Carl R. who wrote (5234)	5/19/1999 7:45:00 AM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (3) of 15132

Thoughts on the tightening bias. 1. A.G. must be getting a great chuckle. In the previous 80 years, the bias wouldn't have been known. In recent years, only the fact that there was no change in rates, would have been announced. The probable market response would have been to go up. 2. A.G. introduces a new tool; uses it right away; then gets the desired response. He didn't have to tighten; yet by taking a nearly meaningless action (in the sense that even without the asymmetric bias, the Fed was not restricted in any intermeeting action), Mr G was able to get restraint from the market. Jawboning carried to a new level. 3. Any comments on the talking heads??? They've got a new timing for an old piece of information. ... and they haven't a clue what to do with it. My suggestion: Given that the overwhelming majority of the times that there was a tightening bias introduced with no subsequent rate increase, it should just be ignored. My 2¢ worth... Ian.

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