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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Paul Senior who wrote (7220)5/19/1999 8:42:00 AM
From: James Clarke  Read Replies (2) of 78632
 
Case is a buy. A 14% return in six months is nothing to sneeze at. I figure the probability of the deal happening is north of 80%, and the downside in Case stock if the deal doesn't happen...that's a tough one, but I figure I could get out at 40 worst case. So at 48, the calculation would be:

20% * -7 points of downside + 80% * 7 points of upside = 4.2 point expected return.
That's about a 9% expected return in 6 months...nearly 20% annualized, and without market risk. I'll take that.
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