Big K, I believe Frank's revenue figures will be closer to the mark. Corel's balloon is flying high in the atmosphere of increased competition. Certainly filling the channels with two new releases will produce higher revenue, but, accompanied by higher receivables. Should Q2 produce the $85 M you predict, the A/R number will probably sit at $75 or $80 M. Even if revenue shows up at $60 M, which I believe will be likely, there will be no indication of products flowing with any force to the end user until Q3 results are reported.
Don't forget, Q1 was not just a "scare," it was a disaster. I for one certainly hope Dr. 'C' and Mr. O'Reilly were right about this "one time event."
There are three events that can drive this stock to $6 anytime soon.
1. The $80 or $85 M revenue you predict.
2. Layoffs of about 1/3 of personnel.
3. Resignation of Dr. Cowpland.
I'm having fun pondering the revenue figures you suggest. However, without one of these events, well . . . it's more of the same.
Here's Up, Up and Away to you!
Scott |
