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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc
ATHM 22.80+2.9%Jan 12 3:59 PM EST
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To: TREND1 who wrote (9574)5/19/1999 2:23:00 PM
From: ahhaha  Read Replies (3) of 29970
 
A moving average is differentially equivalent to momentum. They both provide a first order differencing mechanism that estimates trend. The recognition of trend is carried in the first order error term. Thus, traders unconsciously put trend into their intuitive pricing. Deviations away from instantaneous trend can be contained in second order considerations, but the data is too discontinuous to put much stock in that. In any event the traders sense that too. Study of past price movement is of no value. No, it is of negative value because it deludes you into believing that it contains predictive value and so you over rule what the random walk would have given you.

I predict that your machine is going to bust you again. Riding MU down from 51 doesn't sound like the way to succeed in markets. MU was a good example of a random walk, but ATHM is even better. It is why the cheerleaders here have disappeared and it is going to be a repeated experience just about everywhere.
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