CATS - Catalyst Semiconductor Message Board

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Technology Stocks : CATS - Catalyst Semiconductor

CATS 25.89

+1.6%

Jul 2 5:00 PM EST

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To: FruJu who wrote (57)	12/13/1995 9:12:00 AM
From: Tom Claugus	of 231

Evan, My machine here indicates that MU has 16 analyst estimates for 11/95 earnings. The high is $1.70, the low is $1.17 and the mean estimate is $1.49. Based on the Dataquest DRAM/SRAM conference call I was on three weeks ago the high tech community feels there will be an oversupply in SRAM beginning in 1996 especially for the 1Meg part. However the discussions on monitored DRAM plant construction indicates that DRAM oversupply will not occur until 1997. Therefore we should see pretty stable ppricing through 1996. The reason for this is that over 70% of the world's DRAM supply is manufactured by Japanese corporations who have been the slowest in adding production capacity in this most recent semiconductor up-cycle. HOWEVER I expect Micron to underperform in the latter half of 1996 in anticipation of this event just as the SRAM stocks have underperformed approximately 6 months before the estimated oversupply in SRAM is to occur. The reason these stocks begin to perform so poorly that far ahead of the occurrence is that the big boys (like Fidelity) start bailing out ahead of time (much to their credit by the way). NOTE Fidelity's recent selling of ALSC and MU. I feel they may have gotten out of Micron a little too early from a timing perspective compared to Alliance... but better safe than sorry. Good Luck in your investing, TOM CLAUGUS

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