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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Mike Taylor who wrote (9125)3/10/1997 8:11:00 PM
From: Joe Antol   of 42771
 
Mike, I don't wanna throw cold water, but they still need to "fix" stuff. See the end of this article for example.

THIS is where the "bottom line" is. (I.e., for US the shareholders)

======================================================================

VARs Use The Server To Make All The Right
Connections

By Daniel Lyons

"Where there is mystery, there is margin."

That is how VAR opportunities in server-based remote access are
described by Ham Mathews, director of strategic technology at Digi
International Inc.

Server-based remote access involves putting together different
components to provide a solution, a service most customers are not likely
to undertake on their own.

Traditional remote-access solutions relied on proprietary solutions, which
were built as stand-alone units using modems, processors and
remote-access software, all attached to a local-area network.

Today, there is a fast-growing segment of the remote-access market that
involves placing multiport modem boards into PC servers running
Microsoft Corp.'s Windows NT or Novell Inc.'s NetWare. This
so-called server-based remote access provides VARs the chance to
create do-it-yourself remote-access solutions that are less expensive than
proprietary stand-alone solutions while, at the same time, carrying better
margins.

"This is a huge opportunity for resellers," says Brad Baldwin, director of
remote-access research at International Data Corp., a market research
firm in Framingham, Mass. "There is a segment of the customer population
that really wants an open-systems solution and is reluctant to buy
proprietary hardware. For VARs, there is an exciting opportunity to
combine components and add value by delivering a customized packaged
solution. It's a perfect fit for a reseller."

Baldwin estimated worldwide revenue in the server-based remote-access
market at $343 million last year, up 70 percent-or $200 million-from
1995. Revenue this year is expected to reach $476 million and $756
million by 2000.

The biggest difference between server-based remote access and
stand-alone solutions is that server-based solutions begin with a standard
PC or server running an Intel processor and a standard operating system,
such as Windows NT or NetWare. Stand-alone systems from companies
such as Shiva Corp., U.S. Robotics Inc., and Rockwell International Inc.
use proprietary software and specialized processors.

The open-systems characteristic has created new life for server-based
technology. A key driver is Windows NT and its built-in remote-access
capabilities (Remote Access Server, or RAS), which make it easier to
add remote-access functionality to an existing NT server.

In a server-based solution, VARs place a multiport board into a PC
expansion slot and then attach modems to the board. Leading board
vendors in this segment include Digi, Equinox Systems Inc., Eicon
Technology Corp. and Netaccess Inc. In many cases, the technology
underlying these boards has its roots in Unix multi-user systems.

"The cost of our solution is about one-fourth the cost of a stand-alone
system," said Mathews of Digi, based in Minnetonka, Minn.

Digi's four-port Acceleport/4 card is $895 and its eight-port Acceleport/8
card is $1,095. Using an eight-port card as an example, and by adding
eight modems at $200 each, a VAR could build an eight-port solution
(supporting, in theory, about 80 users) for about $2,700. A comparable
Shiva LanRover solution would cost $5,800.

Even under full load with all eight ports in use, Digi's server-based system
has a limited effect on the CPU, Mathews said. "We consume less than 5
percent of the CPU. We use less than a mouse," he said.

Potential savings will be a factor in persuading a customer to go with a
server-based solution. But IDC's Baldwin said cost is less important than
other issues, such as the ability to use an open-system software platform
like Windows NT.

"All of these proprietary systems use these wanky little operating systems.
They're good for what they do, but that's it," said Lloyd Spencer, group
product manager for Windows NT communications at Microsoft,
Redmond, Wash.

For VARs familiar with Windows NT or NetWare, server-based
remote-access solutions might be easier to manage.

"The advantage lies in not having to learn something new," said Richard
Sterry, vice president of marketing at Netaccess, Salem, N.H. "Typically
our VARs are already selling NetWare or Windows NT, and they already
know how to configure the server. With the proprietary solutions, they
have to learn a whole new set of commands."

Netaccess, a subsidiary of Xircom Inc., sells a product that Baldwin said
is among the most compelling in this segment:a card with modems built
into it. The four-port Multiport Modem card costs $1,799, while the
eight-port Multiport Modem card is $3,099.

Sterry said Netaccess is targeting departmental and branch-office
solutions, not enterprise customers. "We're targeting systems where there
are fewer than 100 users," he said.

Limits to scalability represent an Achilles' heel for server-based solutions.
"Server-based solutions like Windows NT RAS are a good way to dip
your toe in the water, but as you scale up, it is no longer a viable solution,"
said Dayton Semerjian, product marketing manager at Shiva, in Bedford,
Mass.

Vendors on the server-based side of the issue are trying to address
scalability. Equinox, in Sunrise, Fla., sells the SuperSerial Modem Pool,
which is a chassis that can contain up to 16 modems. Eight chassis can be
stacked together and connected to a PC server through a single expansion
slot. The chassis cost $1,695 each; the card adds another $1,095. Total
price for a 128-port solution would be $14,655, excluding modems.

For now, most observers see server-based systems as being more
appropriate for smaller, not larger, installations.

Vendors such as Cubix Corp., Carson City, Nev., sell both stand-alone
and server-based solutions. "There are advantages with both ways. With
the server-based system, you have the advantage of being able to manage
the resource as part of your server. But a self-contained unit can be easier
to troubleshoot. Since it's a separate module, you can service it without
affecting the server itself," said Jim Zakzeski, vice president of marketing
at Cubix.

"The bottom line is that it's a matter of personal preference. Some people
like boxes and some people hate them," said Richard April, program
manager for remote-access products at Eicon, in Montreal.

Price may be an influence for resellers choosing operating systems.
Windows NT includes RAS for free. Novell users have to buy a
remote-access module called NetWare Connect at $1,995 for an
eight-port version, and $5,995 for a 32-port version.

**********************************************************************
This is the part Mike. I don't know about you, but I don't like this.
**********************************************************************

"Microsoft is really being aggressive about working with VARs and
catching onto this opportunity, while Novell is more complacent," IDC's
Baldwin said. "Novell went for years without having any competition, and
I don't know if they're handling it quite right."

Novell officials did not respond to requests for interviews.

Copyright r 1997 CMP Media Inc.
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Comments? Scott?

Joe...
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