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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC)
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To: Paul Dubsky who wrote (123)3/10/1997 9:18:00 PM
From: kolo55   of 27311
 
A lurking shareholder chimes in.

OK guys. I didn't want to post here before because I'm not sure I wanted people to know I own these shares. I've owned some shares since before the last start-up attempt several years ago. I got real excited last time and I ended up buying on the initial price dip around 14, just before the announcement they wouldn't be able to meet specs and wouldn't actually produce the battery ( I had great timing).

Now fast forward. I've been reading the thread the last couple of months and have really appreciated the posts by FMK. I've almost quadrupled my original position in the last month. I still consider it a speculative position that I can be wrong on and still laugh about if it goes wrong. But the upside is huge; at least high teens and probably the twenties as soon as they establish production and are selling all they can produce. I think the odds of that are quite high; probably 80-90%. The downside is that a glitch occurs and delays production again. In this case I still think the shares should sell at 3-4 range given the value of their technology. Using the short term upside of 15-20 and a 80% probability, and a downside of 3 with a 10-20% probablility, these are the odds I like if I'm going to gamble on a risky investment. The risk adjusted expected value using those estimates is about 16. This is a nice return and makes this a very attractive speculation. And of course long term (1-2 years) the upside is even bigger.

Now having worked on start-ups before, I suspect there will be some operating glitches getting production up to speed. So I think a 75% operating factor is a bit generous, especially for the first 6-12 months or so. But Valence has been preparing for this day for a long time.

As the stock moves up, I may be buying more as positive info comes out.

Since I am not as familiar on this stock as others on this thread, I'll tune out for now, and leave the field to the people in the know.

Paul
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