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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis
SPY 672.04-1.7%Nov 13 4:00 PM EST
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To: Jerry Olson who wrote (14412)5/19/1999 10:18:00 PM
From: Smooth Drive  Read Replies (3) of 99985
 
Hello Jerry,

Always love your comments Jerry. My last post on MDA was at Message 9524099 and I didn't hear too many "Seconds"<g>. As of this evening, I haven't changed my position and am feeling even more confident. My stops have been tightened but none hit, I'm up on a few, and I think there's going to be an explosive move UP.

A little update on the steam that runs the stock market (interest rates), as follows:

The Dow Jones Utility Average just flat out kicked some real butt today --

324                                             X
322 X                                           X
320 X O                                       + X
318 X O                                     +   X
316 X O X           *                     +     X
314 X O X O         X *                 +       5
312 X O X O     X   X O *             +         X   +
310 X O X O     X O C O   *         +           X +             
308 A O X O     X O X 1 X   *     +             X
306 X O X O     X O X O X O   * +   X         + X
304 X O X O X   B O   O X O   + *   X O     +   X
302 X O X O X O X *   O   O +   X * X O   +     X
300 X O   O X O X   *     O X   X O X O +   X   X
298 X *   O   O       *   2 X O X O X O 4   X O X
296 X   *               * O X O X O   O X O X O X   +
294 X     *               O X O X   + O X O X O X +
292 X       *             O X O X +   O   O   O +
290 X         *         + O X 3 +             + < Bullish S/L
288 X           *     +   O   + *
286 X             * +             *
284 X             + *               *
282 X           +     *               * < Bearish Support Line
280 X         +         *
278 X       +             * 
276 X     +                 *
274 X   +                     *
272 X +                         *
270 +                             * < Bearish Support Line

It rose two boxes today! More importantly, this isn't some pansy ass trading range breakout - today we exceeded the previous all time high of 322 set back in October. Will it pullback? Of course. Can it then reverse back up and go higher still? Damn straights. Is it almost always a leading indicator of the DJIA? Sure is.

So how about the TYX:

59.50
59.25                             X
59.00                             X O
58.75                         X   X O
58.50                         X O X O
58.25                         X O X O
58.00                     X   X O X O +
57.75                     X O X O X +                         
57.50                     X O X O +
57.25                     X O   + < Bullish Resistance Line
57.00         X           X * +                         
56.75     X   X O 4       X + *                        
56.50 X   X O X O X O     X     *
56.25 X O 3 O X O X O   + X       * < Bearish Support Line
56.00 X O X O   O X O +   X         +
55.75 X O X     O X O X   X       +
55.50 X O       O X O X O X     +
55.25 X         O X O X O X   +
55.00 X         O X O X O X + < Revised Bullish Support Line
54.75 X         O X O X O +
54.50 X         O   O X +
54.25 X             O +
54.00 X             +
53.75 X
53.50 X
53.25 X

This is a VERY BULLISH chart. Probably my favorite pattern up there with an ascending triple top. But --- at this moment I think the DJUA is going to lead both the DJIA up and the TYX down.

You're right Jerry about the short term bullish percent charts turning down and the ensuing pull back (that I think has pretty much happened in a number of areas). Right now I love the fact that the Bullish Sentiment Index rose to 60.9 (from 56.9 last week) and bears dropped to 28.7 from 31. The happy newsletter readers are just getting their guru info and they're going to feel good and put in the buy order and that means more buyers than sellers and prices are going to go up and ----- put on your space suit Jerry, were going into orbit<VBG>.

Take care,

Eric
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