SI
SI
discoversearch

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor.  We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community.  If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.
Politics : Ask Michael Burke
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  
To: Knighty Tin who wrote (59875)5/19/1999 10:39:00 PM
From: Fred B.  Read Replies (3) of 132070
 
Michael,

Wharton's problem is the same problem that many bears have. i.e. evaluating the economy with the same methods used 30 years ago, ignoring the gigantic increases in productivity due to technology. That is why the phillips curve has been relegated to the dustbin of history.

With respect to what the consumer is doing, we both know that is related in a very interesting way to what this market is doing. Consumer spending will slow toward the second half of this year just as the speed of the bull market will slow towards the second half. One thing that most bears ignore is that both consumer spending and this bull market, in some similar and some different ways, are the function of a generational shift that took place in this country 15-20 years ago, namely the baby boomer generation entering the work force. That combined with the advances in technology is what is fueling this market. FED policy only guides these forces and IMHO has done a great job in the last 5 years in doing so.

With respect to this market, what you guys ignore is that this composition is not going to change until 2005-2010. In other words, until these baby- boomers start retiring and pulling money out of the
401K's instead of pouring money into them, this bull-market will continue. Sure, there will be many crisis (just like last October). There may even be one or several mini bear markets in the process.But nobody can change the most fundamental principal that this market was founded on. i.e. the law of supply and demand.

Good luck

Fred
Report TOU ViolationShare This Post
 Public ReplyPrvt ReplyMark as Last ReadFilePrevious 10Next 10PreviousNext  

HomeMailHotSubjectMarksPeopleMarksKeepersSettings
Terms Of UseContact UsCopyright/IP PolicyPrivacy PolicyAbout UsFAQAdvertise on SI
© 2025 Knight Sac Media.  Data provided by Twelve Data, Alpha Vantage, and CityFALCON News