I'm also interested in Art's reply, but I'd like to add my magnetic bit's worth...
It almost sounds like you have Windows on Wall Street. I, too use Boll. Bands, 20 day MA and 2 SDEVs and agree with your read. There are other indicators besides Boll. and RSI that are pointing to a basing and perhaps a weak (as of now, anyway) turn-up. Negative volume index has crossed it's 10-day MA for the first time since about Jan. 10. This index, which, according to the WOW's on-line definition, indicates the sentiment of "sophisticated" investors (as WOW calls them), namely institutions. These investors, (per WOW) seem to buy during times of LOW volume. The LOW volume we have now in AXC of course shows that the turn-up is relatively weak at least at present. Overall, the basing seems IMO to indicate that supply is finally beginning to catch up with demand and that the downward (perhaps margin) selling has diminished. It will take some news to get interest re-sparked, the volume increased, and for any turn-up to "turn-into" a sustained move of more than just a half-point or so.
I still see some minor negatives such as (-) accumulation/distribution and (-) Balance of Power on TC2000. But, the volume oscillator did cross zero positively last Friday, and AXC did turn-up.
Relatedly, I also follow AXC fundamentally, which is why I bought AXC to begin with. I echo the comments of a couple posts ago: revenue from KM will be seen in 4Q calendar yr 97 at best -- this was documented in filings and letters to shareholders. This is not a get rich quick stock, and as Bramson said AXC is not just a keepering company. Look at their growth in other products and keep in mind that the earnings estimates are all less KM. All AXC has to do is prove it can match or beat (as it just did by 103%) estimates...!
Ron M. |
