John, let me put on the hat of the analysts that are going to help implement this insanity (six of which rate MU a strong buy, 9 a buy and 9 a hold).
Earnings model: Next year 2.38 (current average estimate), 2001 $4.5 2002 $9 (and that is less than what Kurlak was saying in 1995 the stock will earn three years from that fateful 1995).
Market share: MU will hold more than 20% of the now stabilized DRAM market.
Pricing (ASP) will go up "because" RDRAM command a major premium and the market will be more than 50% RDRAM.
MU is the most efficient producer.
MU will have all its production under .18 within (and they'll pit a nice number there).
And to make things look really good, MU might announce that they are running out of capacity and Lehi is going to be equipped and running at full speed within...
Add to this that we are only in the first half of a two three years "upcycle" for the semis, and you have the stage set for MU to force conversion of those debentures.
(Mind you, it is not my opinion, it is a "painting" I expect the street and MU to "paint" so as to assure the conversion., perception and reality are not always the same. MU has to close above about $42 to start that insane process going, not too far. Of course, if that scenario unfolds, you'll have RMBS at $300 (VBG).
Zeev
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