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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets

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To: TAPDOG who wrote (1601)5/20/1999 10:35:00 AM
From: Henry Volquardsen  Read Replies (3) of 3536
 
too early to say on Argentina. As I said, there are cryptic comments. There is an election coming up, I believe in October, and there will be a lot of debate on the status of the currency board. I suspect, which is why I posted, that there could be suggestions that it is time to break the currency board. However there is also a possibility that the current government could try and preempt that by proposing complete dollarization. So it is more of a situation that needs to be watched.

FWIW I don't think an Argentinian currency scare would be good for the Euro. If Argentina was in danger you would probably see a lot of sympathy pains in the other emerging economies. This would have two impacts. First it would hit European economic growth, they have shown they are not as able to ride out emerging market troubles as the US economy. Second you would see a renewed flight to quality and the first target would most likely be US T bonds which would also help the dollar.

For the record I am a big Euro skeptic so my view may be coloured.
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