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Technology Stocks : Global Crossing - GX (formerly GBLX)

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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (974)5/20/1999 1:14:00 PM
From: Lazarus Vekiarides  Read Replies (2) of 15615
 
Frank,

You're right about their apparent lack of focus. I can't agree more.

I got into GBLX as an international data networking play. So I actually got to like the FRO deal after I thought about it a little. It's was a much better way to fill their coffers than, say, LCI was to QWST. This is because FRO has an enlightened networking services story, IMO. While that deal changed their target market, it's still a great market to be in. The demand to provide data to businesses is quite high and will stay that way for a while. I like this company as a provider of pipes to businesses and carriers as much as I liked them as a provider of overseas pipes to carriers. (This is what I thought they did two weeks ago...)

On the other hand, the USW deal is ill-timed from a number of perspectives. The baby bells are going to be on sale in the coming years. They are still largely clueless. Why buy one now when you can compete with them effectively in their higher margin businesses? Why pay top dollar today for tomorrow's damaged goods? (Sol certainly knows this.) Providing DSL to middle America is not going to be profitable for a while yet. It also comes with a lot of baggage in this case.

I can think of other plays I'd rather make for "last mile" services. There are more competent and motivated players than USW out there. So, now that GBLX will be mostly a provider of pipes to people's houses, I'm rather ambivalent. To answer your question, I believe that this is what they've become with this deal: a competitor to companies like RCN. (OK, maybe not entirely, but look at the resources the have dedicated to this end of the business vs. the others.)

In short, I have high confidence that they'll find a way to jack the price of their stock up in the short term. I'm just not sure I want to be on the ride for the long term anymore. Somebody please convince me otherwise.

Laz
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