Dr. Seuss, we cannot use the same yardstick homogeneously to all floorless entities. I am not sure if I need to "prove" my credentials on floorless entities and flim flam companies, but there are about 20 some outfits that were hyped on SI in which I steadfastly recommended abandonment. If you want a list here is a partial one, CTYS, IELSF, TTRIF, EXSO, NAMX, GATE, AKSEF, HEC, RNTK, RMIL.
I have said many times, on various threads that the presence of a floorless issue in the financing of a company's current cash needs is a warning sign that the company is with its financial back against the wall, but I have seen few cases were the company managed to get from under that yoke, and came back from the abyss.
Maybe it is time to try and see what might be the hallmark of floorless survivors. This is important since in some of these cases, the floorless issue has put unrealistic pressure on the stock price and the removal of the floorless threat, afford an unusual opportunity for entry at a low price (and this is a general comment, not necessarily directed to the situation before us).
In order to survive a floorless assault of the death spiral, there must be good visibility of impending cash flow, not just to remove the floorless itself, but to remove the constant need of sub par financing of further growth.
Another hallmark of survivors is that the floorless issue is not too great a portion of the total capitalization under a declining price scenario.
Yet another hallmark of survivors is that future requirements of cash will not force going back to the deadly water well of the floorless bandits.
In the case of ASTN, one can speculate that cash flow is "imminent", if indeed operations are to start within two months. Now, I want to add a caveat, another pseudo floorless situation (VLNC) had its salvation "event", (supposedly, a very large purchase order) delayed for quite some time, so, take the "imminent" with the necessary grain or two of salt, but as long as the perception of this imminence stays, you must take it into account.
In the case of ASTN the floorless issue is not large enough to cause the massive dilution associated with death spirals, and since the process takes some time, a good chance that cash flow will occur before the maelstrom is in full force, is present.
In the case of ASTN there is still a source of capital available in the conversion of pre existing paper.
Having said all that, one could expect the upside to be limited by hedging activities of the various parties holding equivalent securities (floorless and warrants). What is interesting is that the short position in ASTN, last time I checked, was only some 100,000 shares, of course that was as of April 15th and many events have occurred since. I think we will get a better idea of hedging activities once we see the short interest this month.
Zeev
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