Add: Ohhh, but we DO know where the top and bottom is(more or less) at this point in time, no? Just take a look at any chart, starting from ~January of this year through right now. VLNC is firmly locked in fairly predictable rut.
And I think we can tell just about how long this rut's going to last, too. How long? Well, let's look at the one document that's proven to be unfailingly(is this a word? Heh) accurate. The SEC filings(a groan goes up from the group). Management has stated in their filing that, barring any unforeseen nastiness, the N.I. lines will be ready to go(my words) come the end of their fiscal year 2000 1st quarter. In other words, the end of this June.
Let's think about this for a second. End of June. Mooter, et.al., have stated they've seen the N.I. plant, that this plant has been producing product, and that this product is being stored. Assuming this has been going on for approximately one month, and given that the quarantine parameters require.....what....~90 days?? Then end of June "jives" with their filing statement(s). To me everything SCREAM'S an early July time-frame. Of course, I could be wrong. To Mooter, et.al., while touring the plant did you discuss "perk" charts with Lev? That is, I'd expect he's got commercialization process mapped out right down to the week, if not day, by which point he expects to be commercially "on line". Was this subject broached?
But I'll admit, this is all a wild ass guess of mine that stems from waaaay back in December when it became clear we were then looking at another 6 months(welll....clear to me anyway, remember my comment Fred? Heh). So after watching the first cycle I decided to play, and it's been profitable to the ~percentages stated by William. Hey, profit is profit. But I see these cycles also fulfilling a mission, based on my observations of the money flow. It tapers off when VLNC get's into the $8 range, and picks up drastically when it gets down around ~$6.75 to $7. Sidebar comment...hey Rich, remember my private "theory" on this? Heh. Anyway, it appears sumbody be wanting VLNC, but they're disciplined in their approach. "They" appear to want their cost basis to remain ~$7 or so, and so the money flow accelerates when it's down around that point(positive pressure increases), and it decelerates when ~$8 is reached. Can we say yo-yo, or the more popular term(to me anyway), bouncy bouncy?? ;-)
Longer term it appears sumbody knows VLNC will do well. But I'll admit, that although I still hold with my aforementioned time-frames I wouldn't be at all unhappy to have management come out with something sooner(tomorrow would be nice, heh), but while VLNC be rut bound let the logic of the bouncy bouncy rule such trader blocks as you care to play with. Psssst.....one caveat.....all of the above is merely my opinion.
Now......about those p.o.'s. ;-)
John~ |
