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Strategies & Market Trends : Timeshare Companies - OWN FFD TWRI VSTN SVR BXG

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To: Grommit who wrote (20)5/20/1999 10:45:00 PM
From: Grommit  Read Replies (1) of 55
 
Schroders report.

I just skimmed thru a report from Schroders dated 9-1-98. 16 pages titled "Timeshare Industry Update".

> Marriot, Hilton, Hyatt, 4 Seasons are doing timeshares.
> PAH, Starwood, HOT have expressed interest.
> Expect consolidation
> Think smaller timeshare companies may be using looser accounting for reserves.
> Concerned that internet use to resell units may bring prices down for the industry.
> Think the financing business of the industry confuses investors.
> valuations - expect past reputation of the industry, lack of recurring revenue, and financing confustion to keep multiples down as compared to what they might be based on growth alone.
> Thinks OWN should have the highest multiple "because it is best positioned with its large and global network of resorts...", FFD next, and VSTN lower. (They cover only those 3.)
> Overall Industry Risks -- (a) Lack of recurring revenue stream. (Gotta keep finding new customers.) (b) Resale market. (c) economic downturn (d) lack of consistent accounting and reporting.
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