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DD--- I do not basically disagree with your post, except to say that they didn't know, mainly because they were not prepared to listen to advice. The culpability was partial :-)...I realize that you stipulated "enemies and ex- enemies", but I thought my contemptuous reference to those who would have used our inaction against us sufficed to indicate how much I cared--- except for the bungling aspects, which affect the ambivalent adversely...You are right that we cannot know for sure what would have happened in the alternative, but that is the condition that decision- making labors under. Rarely are things clear- cut, usually we balance probabilities. In all probability, the Serbs would have driven the Albanians out, and killed quite a few for good measure, if we had sat on our hands. That would have put destabilizing pressures on Albania, Macedonia, and Bulgaria, and encouraged local intervention: Albanians on behalf of the Kosovars; the Turks in support of Albania; Macedonia against Albania,for fear of their own minority; the Greeks poised to exploit the situation in Macedonia, due to its fears of encouraging separatism in Greek Macedonia; the possibilities are myriad. Dayton falls apart, Bosnia once more becomes a proxy for a confrontation between Serbia and Croatia, the whole thing blows again. Meanwhile, the Russian minority in Russia foments a crisis, because of strictures on full citizenship put forth by the Latvian government...You get the picture...Kaboom! we don't need...This is so hot either... |
