JT--
<<I am amazed at the complacency of this thread as you have
floated your trial balloon about the dangers the market faces between now and the
next two months. Looking forward to your updated supports and targets.>>
I think we try to highlight the issues facing us every day. Contributors and lurkers of this
thread have independent views and may subscribe to a theory or show utter disdain. if
our strategies are based on emotional state of investors and their responses or
sentiments we would have been be dead by now. One needs to have the approach that
as if no one else is listening or watching, just think it all for your own account. If people
are 'complacent' they have every right to do so. Fiscal laws restricts US investors to lot
of 'trading complacency'.
The level of understanding and execution is also different, some are here to learn, others
to know market sentiments, people who actually trade on what is posted constitutes a
miniscule portion. However, what intrigues most is different strategies and the mosaic of
views SI creates. A small investor needs to be in permanent state of 'inactivity' rather
hibernation and some activity at the right time, his first objective in a listless market is to
see that he avoids 'whipsaw' and second to judge how far the potential of the move is,
what impact it can have on his monthly statements and when to go out for some bottom
fishing in search of new values. It is normal that for achieving this he needs to have some
cash from exiting the top of the market.
Short term 'shorting' is something very difficult for a small long term core investor, by
experience he knows that the market makes sure that all stops are ringed before it
makes a move up or down. So sometime it is best to do nothing if you are solidly
invested in core portfolio and would not like to trade inter day.
It is everyone's wish to catch the bottom and the top, very rarely I find we succeed but
what makes the game interesting is the element of anticipation. Calling market direction
every day is a difficult business but a very rewarding one too if one gets it right, here we
try to do that every day and in my opinion have a respectful score. No one is bigger
than market but one needs to deal with it every day with certain humility and on merit.
Lack of reaction and lack of announcement from most is the integral part of the deal,
regular posters learn to talk to their own self this is the only way to win over the
'complacency of writing every day'. I assure you that kind of free thinking I expound on
these pages is only possible when I let my mind free of any kind of restraints s if no on
else is listening that is how I am able to understand the dynamics and undercurrents of the
markets. The more I think and know that more I realize how little I know.
Every individual has its own approach and thinking process and he needs to work on
strategies that may be conducive for evaluating a future course of action. Since all ideas
are 'voluntary contributions' it may look as if the posts are falling on deaf ears, however
experience tells me what matters the most is what you have written on timely basis and
how that has been translated into a strategy. What is the state of my account is my test
of my postings, the day it would be pathetic I will just not post, why to cheat people!
Why to pose a hero when I am a coward not to back my convictions with my trades.
Successful 'back testing of posted strategies' what keeps me going otherwise it does
becomes very boring. Thread should have different views, I am cautious and trading
accordingly others have a different approach and that is what makes markets very
interesting place, the moment we have 'similarity' in thinking the concept of two
opposing views that fuels the market will disappear in thin air, some are bullish others
complacent whilst some very bearish however the best strategy is to take what market
gives you, I have learnt to love my levels for me PSE until it breaks 515 on two closing
basis and Comp 2500 support with DOT's 600 SOX 405 or SPM 1318, I would
assume that market is not ready for a big sell off in Techs and internets', until Techs
don't break we may see some weakness but these levels I have highlighted need to
break on closing basis. BKX I have this test of 850 on cards only if 872 is taken out,
market can stay course even if BKX and Dow's weakens, watch PSE and IIX.. the
next few points on these indexes are quite sensitive rather IIX sits on 50 days MA from
where it has bounced several times before..
I would think that Bonds Sept contracts diversification is a great investment if you
consider risk rewards in investing in equities and bonds. I am closely watching the
market I would think that unless 515 on PSE is not taken out I will not to be too worried
on Tech and Internets, I look at IIX for a confirmation of a breakdown if you look at
this index it sits comfortably at 50 days MA where as DOT broke through it, 7 out of ten
times this has been resulting into a rally in DOT stocks, IIX DOT diversion is not
sustainable. My trade would be to long Tech indexes at around 616 or 641 level on
DOT or 2515-25 on Comp I will cut at a close below 596 on DOT and 2494 on
Comp. I will short SPM if BKX takes out 878 for a trade to 850 area.. For me stocks
to watch are EBAY AOL SCH EGRP ATHM, they will do good if test of 616 holds or
if without testing 616 we break 641 on the up... Big short trade below 1318 to 1292…on SPM.. Watch out for RUT too as far as it is positive the big one is not going to rock us if Rut breaks 440.. watch out..
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