GZ here is some real heavy duty EW and Gann work, pretty interesting.
My name is Jean Comeau from Quebec, Canada and I am a commodity trading
>advisor (CTA) registered in Chicago. I have studied the stock market in
>a technical way for over 25 years and with a detailed technical
analysis
>
>which follows, I have come to the conclusion that a stock market crash
>this year (l999) is inevitable.
>
>The Dow Jones Industrial average should hit 11550 to 11600 points on an
>intraday basis and a crash will then be triggerred. Since we are almost
>there, I took the liberty to write the following as to perhaps help
>others to make a decision in regards to whether stay in or bail out of
>the
>market before the iceberg is finally hit...
>
>In order to understand more clearly the main core of the following
>analysis, I shall begin by refering to pionners in terms of researches
>in the technical analysis field.
>
>ELLIOT (Wave Theory): a market trend usually moves in 5 waves UP and
>then 3 waves DOWN and so on...
>
>FIBONNACCI (Perfect Numbers): .382 and .6l8
>1-2-3-5-8-13-21-34-55-89-144 etc...
>These numbers play a major role in technical analyses of any sort when
>it comes to mathematical calculations.
>
>W.D. GANN (Square Rule): Time and price (space) meet at a turning point
>or as in this case the square root of 34 as it will be demonstrated.
>
>Now, let us go back in l929 to possibly obtain a better comprehension
>of the last major WAVES DOWN of the crash that occurred then and
realise
>
>why the enormous potential for it to repeat is just around the corner.
>
>CRASH OF 1929 - 3 waves down
>
>October 1929 = High or end of previous major 5 waves up = Dow touches
>382 points or Fibonnacci .382
>
>Then,
>
>CRASH - Wave 1 = Within 2 months from the high (382), the Dow touches
>200 for a total move down of 182 points.
>
>CRASH - Wave 2 = Within the following 6 months, the market recovered to
>290 or 90 points gain. Here, notice that half of the retracement is
made
>
>back up from the original 182 points down(wave 1).
>
>CRASH - Wave 3 = Finally in June 1932 (after 34 months from the high),
>the market touches the 43 points level and establish the end of the
>major
>bear market.
>
>NOTE: For any wave to be confirmed as fitting the picture, the market
>will usually and normally retrace half of the last move either up or
>down
>from the previous major low or high which it actually did in Crash -
>Wave 2.
>
>NOW, ON THE WAY UP...
>
>WAVE 1 = 1972 (last quarter) D.J. hits 1051
>
>WAVE 2 = 1974 (last quarter) D.J. hits 577
>
>In this case, the total move down is 474 points or half retracement
>from 43 (l932 low) to (l972 high) 105l.
>
>WAVE 3 = 1987 (August) D.J. hits 2746 (intraday basis)
>
>WAVE 4 = 1987 (October) D.J. hits 1616 (intraday basis)
>
>In this case, the total move down is 1130 points or half retracement
>from 1974 low or 577 to high of 2746.
>
>WAVE 5 = WHEN DOW JONES HITS 11550 TO 11600 POINTS. END OF MAJOR BULL
>MARKET, PERIOD.
>
>We achieve our goal by using Fibonnacci numbers as follows:
>
>Wave 1 or l972 = Fibonnacci number 3 times 339 which is the total down
>move of the last crash (1929) totals up to 1017 plus 43 (crash low)
>equals
>1060 and the actual high in 1972 was 1051.
>
>Wave 3 or 1987 = Fibonnacci number 8 times 339 equals 2712 plus 43
>(crash low) equals 2745 and the actual high in 1987 was 2746.
>
>Wave 5 or l999 = Fibonnacci number 34 times 339 equals 11526 plus 43
>(crash low) equals 11569.
>
>Also note: W.D. Gann Square rule is now in full strength 34 times 340
>(square root of 34) = 11560. Note that the number 339 was rounded up to
>340. When that number is hit, the 3 waves down will be in an effective
>mode.
>We are to expect then that THE MARKET WILL DROP FROM 5500 to 6000
POINTS
>within the following 2 months (half of retracement of full move from 43
>to 11569) which will signal the very next GREAT GREAT DEPRESSION and a
>rendez-vous with destiny and Y2K...
>
>There are many more technical analyses that add up to similar results
>which also reveal the exact same story. At this point, this present
>exercise
>seemed to me more realistic for an immediate comprehension of the
>matter.
>
>Ex: Twice 34 (Fibo) years from l932 to 2000
>
> 13 (Fibo) years from l974 leads us to l987 (Note: a cycle bottom
>to
>top or top to bottom usually repeats twice only when properly measured.
> 13 (Fibo) years from 1987 leads us to 2000...
>
>I sincerely hope that this will help,
>
>best regards to all,
>
>
>Jean Comeau
>
> |
