HI Bill; Well from 96 to mid 98 the S&P was flying up at
about a 40% per year rate, then something went wrong,
going from mid 98 to now we have slowed to a little over
a 12% rate..the bull is showing it's age.
The pundits on CNBC have to please their clients and use a
lot of tricks to do it. Even the indexes are made to look like
the market is doing better than it is, as a lot of money goes
to money heaven and many stocks just fall off the radar screen
and are never mentioned again. It's the winners that
the pundits focus on the most, with just a casual mention of
the ones who get de-listed.
Then they also talk up a High point in the market
comparing it to the last low point, but apples to apples
says we need to compare highs to highs, and lows to lows,
keeping in mind the indexes are an enhancing tool more than
just a reality check, bringing in winners while not continuing to track the dogs.
This Bull is losing steam , while I see it going on I don't
see it maintaining the rate of gain it did in the 96 to 98
time frame, and I expect the next correction within
3 months to exceed percentage wise the one we had last
July to Oct.
If anything is really on the rise it's volatility,
and it's in a trap now, as if volatility stalls
the big money in derivatives all goes to waste in a flat
market they won't stand for that. They are making more in
the derivatives market than the raw market and need volatility to
keep it alive.
Jim |
