<< ....FLC..Buy--use recent share weakness ...>>
This is ''exactly'' my point on FLC;
W H A T '' W E A K N E S S'' !!!???!!?!?!?
How can anyone view $91/2ish as weak for FLC here ? - this AINT no buying opp imho ! - not even close to an ''opportunity''...
Waiting to see if FLC fell to the high $7's - $8ish - yes; that would be ''weaknes'' and no one could be blammed for seeing that as ''weakness'' and a buying ''opportunity.'' But, We've been able to buy FLC below this price about 127 of the last 130 days since the first of the year (VBG) - how the hell is $9 - 10 for FLC an ''opportunity'' ?
My point is many of us have bought/traded FLC in the $5 -$7 days; and most who have followed FLC certainly had lots of opportunity to buy FLC at this range, virtually any day that the sun rose in the east....
Now - ''if'' you had bought FLC at the 4 hour window when it spiked through the $10's to $11 1/2 - then I guess those few - who bought FLC in that 1/2 day window - versus anytime in the last 127 days - yes; maybe ''they'' see FLC in the high $9's as a value, or buying opportunity ?
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeze ! This is a classic situation where I think some Institutions want to trim FLC (of which I am long) and I see them selling off non-stop into strength here. Untill we see rig counts rising rapidly to 135 on their way to 150; FLC remains the driller with the least upside ''nearterm'' and the most risk ''nearterm'' imho.
If FLC sells off to say $7 1/2ish - then maybe I would be a buyer, but why would ''anyone'' be ''adding'' FLC here in this window of risk and declining fundamentals ?
IMHO; buy FLC sub $8 , or wait untill rig counts rise substantially, and dayrates start moving - then jump in. "IF" we see a delay past Oct. 1st for rig counts being over 135 in the GOM - then any other Rig cancellations by any other driller, , or sector weakness makes FLC the short selling posterchild in the OSX imho. I also do not think FLC in the ''nearterm'' will keep pace with the OSX if we get a nice move here off of the May OPEC compliance #'s being released in June. I think FLC remains a laggard - with more than ample opportunity to buy cheap. Untill the fundamentals in offshore drilling turn - FLC ''ain't'' going anywhere fast imho. I think buying RIG, DO, SDC here on retracing is the play - and then, and only then; buying FLC heavy - when fundamentals have turned. Give the Street the next $6 in FLC - all the risk is here to $12-15; once we hit 135 GOM rigs working, and see dayrates move substantially accross the offshore board - then load the Falcon-boat - but, not untill..... let them have all the risk and the next $5 ($10-$15) - I'll take the riskless next $15 ($15 to $30 run) just my usual .02 cents.
There are just too many other better risk vs. reward plays... all of the risk is in the early stages of offshore recovery here in FLC. As it is so leveraged - debtwise; it will remain a laggard - so why beat your head against the wall here and assume all the risk. Wait - when the tide does turn; FLC will be like a coiled spring, or the weasel in the jack-in-the box.... buy it then. |
