Vioxx vs Celebrex from a Bloomberg update:
More than 3.4 million prescriptions have been written for
Celebrex, a Monsanto drug that Pfizer helps market, since U.S.
sales began in January.
The FDA didn't give Merck's drug much, if any, advantage
over Monsanto's Celebrex on the prescribing label, said Jeffrey
Chaffkin, an analyst with PaineWebber.
''The labels are essentially the same,'' he said.
The good news for Merck is that the FDA didn't highlight
questions about Vioxx's potential to cause water retention,
Chaffkin said. Water retention, or edema, can be a concern for
doctors treating elderly patients who already are at higher risk
for some heart problems.
Extensive Studies
Still, Merck had hoped its extensive studies would let it
say more about Vioxx's apparent lower risk of causing ulcers and
irritation in the gastrointestinal tract, Chaffkin said.
''They didn't get as strong a label in the GI as they
wanted,'' Chaffkin said. ''Right now, in terms of sheer revenue,
I think that Celebrex will always have an advantage.''
Chaffkin estimated peak sales of Celebrex at $2 billion to
$3 billion, with Vioxx more likely to sell in the bottom of that
range.
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