cont.
For each compound I've listed the following, each on a separate line:
Name of Compound
Targeted Indications
Stage of Development
Owner of Commercialization Rights
Anaxagoras' Wild, Wild Valuation Guess Using the Model
Let's begin.... Here's the Pipeline:
Sodium Channel Blockers:
1. Co 102862
For neuropathic pain and epilepsy
Preclinical development
CoCensys
Value: $5M
GABAA Receptor Modulators:
1. CCD 1042 Ganaxolone (Anticonvulsant)
For epilepsy, including complex partial seizures and infantile spasms
(a) Catamenial epilepsy trial commenced April 1999, (b) completed Phase IIA trials for infantile spasms and complex partial seizures in adults
CoCensys
Value: 30% of the epiliepsy market is unserved. Assume Ganaxolone is a niche product that captures a small fraction of this, or 1% of the total market of $3.2 billion, i.e. $32 M. Discount it to $12.8 M.
2. CCD 3693 (Sedative/Hypnotic)
Insomnia
Phase I
CoCensys
Value: No sales data, so treat it as preclinical and throw in $5M.
3. Co 2-6749 (Anxiolytic)
Anxiety disorders
Pre-clinical development
Wyeth-Ayerst
Value: Since someone else has the commercialization rights and it's pre-clinical, ignore it.
4. CCD 1042 Ganaxolone (Antimigraine)
For migraine - prophylaxis
-----
CoCensys
Value: This is the compound that caused the problems last year with disappointing results, but it appears to work in a subset of the study's population. Ignore it.
Glutamate Receptor Antagonists:
1. Licostinel
Stroke, Tinnitus, and Substance Abuse
Phase I trials for stroke completed; preclinical studies for tinnitus ongoing; potential for treatment of eye disorders and substance abuse under evaluation
CoCensys
Value: The market for stroke alone is $5.2 billion. Assume arbitrarily that this compound serves a micro-niche of 0.5%. Discount the resulting $26 million and round to $8 M.
2. SSNRAs
Cerebral ischemia, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, and chronic pain. Selected eye disorders
Discovery
Warner-Lambert and Senju
Value: Skip it.
Caspase Inhibitors:
1. Dipeptides
Neurodegenerative and cardiovascular diseases, cancer, antiviral
Research
Cytovia
Value: Skip it.
cont. |
