John C; re: PZE....DEVON ''stold'' PZE if it goes through - what to do ? / FLC ?!?
#1. Do NOT sell your PZE - if it doesn't go through (it will be fought) then you will get an opportunity of a higher offer, or the longterm opp to realize the development of the assets.
#2. Buy Devon ! - if the merger goes through Devon is allready a top sector choice - not a lot of nearterm/overnight upside; but if they actually get to ''steal'' PZE at this price - OWN DEVON !
..... DEVON must have been able to show PZE some undeveloped, undervalued assets and sold the story of ''their'' future....
bottomline imho: - Own both ~
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now, for my fine friend Lingerfelt....
hmmmmm (VBG) - from the man who didn't know ''Stephens'' from Pinocchio, or the ''Barra'' from a Barbie (VBG) - don't be popping off too soon on FLC Bubb ! (VBG) ..... again; I love FLC ! one of my very, very favorite companies and plays - someone send me an autographed photo of Webster - and it goes on my ''Wall of Fame'' in the Den (next to my autographed Cramer TSC t-shirt) - now that guy had big brass ones; and not too bad a salesman..... ! ...sounds like FLC decided they won't be needing his Big Brass ones, or his salesmanship any longer - hmmm ; buyout rumors true ?
BUT: the emotion ends where the money and the risk starts.... you can have all the FLC here at $9 -11 you want, load the damn boat ! Again - you take ALL of the risk here and you can have the next $5 - I will re-enter like an F -15 on a Serbian Tank Convoy when I see the rig count moving and see dayrates moving up across the offshore board... I have some FLC trading profits from the $5-7 and $7 to $10 7/16ths range. I now own at $9 7/8ths -ish a moderate position - and I will not sell here - unless we see a nightmarish turn of events, nor will I add here, in fact I want sub $8 before I view ''weakness/opportunity'' . But, I fail to see how ANYONE see's any attraction to FLC right here, right now (other than re-starting a moderate position) ? To me - FLC is a neutral - hold here; no better and no worse.
Now the exception is what Gary Band I believe Marc C are doing here; the point of ''re-entering'' a partial position here - no problem with that; I have what I view as a ''partial'' position here - and no intention of selling. My comments are not at all critical of Marc , or Gary here - my criticism is to the Street for banging the drum ''here'' on FLC as a ''Buy on this Weakness'' play. Too many people see this as ''Load the Boat'' time on Falcon... ? Again - ''what weakness'' ? !!!
You want ''weakness' - HLX from $12 in Sept, down to $4 then to $7; and now back down to $5 that was weakness, - buying HLX at $5 will be one of better trades; or the blow offs in MEXP, PGEI, BEXP, HMAR, CLB, VTS - back at $9 etc of late - now those were ''opportunities'' and that was ''real'' weakness imho. FLC at $9 - 10 is at the top end of a recent run, with bad news since and nothing positive fundamentally even looking forward 60 days; and looking at a strong resistance level at $11 1/2 .... !
That the the analysts are using that phrase ''weakness'' is a sign of them trying toooooo damn hard to pump FLC; actually they are NOT trying to pump FLC here - what they are trying to do is to ''support'' it while they trim (not sell out) positions. I ''know'' that more than myself share the premise of - let others take ALL of the risk and the next $5 here - and let ''us'' take virtually no risk, and the next $15 ! I'll make that bet every day...
I sure saw lots of action like this in FLC earlier today - 2 -3 tics up for 100, 100, 300 shares - then a 5000 share short down... Institutional buying Lingerfelt ? we shall see .... there is a time for all things - FLC will have it's day in the sun - but it aint today and it aint anytime soon.... bank on it.
FLC will not break $15 without 135+ GOM rigs working offshore - regardless of what crude does imho. Take the next $5 here and assume all the rig cancellation and recovery delay risk - I'll see you at $15ish when we have 135-150 rigs at work.... |
