Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (45212)	5/21/1999 12:54:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) of 95453

< ESV. If you compare the companies, FLC is undervalued.> ....ESV is valued here because of it's sterling ''balance sheet'' and huge cash positions - 2nd to only DO ? I don't think FLC gets mentioned in the same breath on that subject. - RDC also ain't going anywhere... Palmer himself is worth a $2 premium imho (VBG). The ''aint going anywhere'' aspect of some companies certainly deserves a premium imho. One stock being optimistically overvalued to a greater extent than another, doesn't make the other a bargain... again; many are missing my point about FLC - I LOVE FLC ! .... but it is a very cold, logically play here; to let the world have virtually ''all'' of the risk in this acknowledged RISKY company - let them take the risk ''here'' untill we see actual, cold, reality based funamental change - ie: 135+ GOM rigs at work and proof of dayrates rising.... FLC ''aint'' breaking over $15 strongly untill then. FLC isn't out of the potential ''bad news'' dog house yet - untill it is - I wouldn't be ''adding'' - now, nothing wrong with having a moderate position here. This keeps you from missing a major unforseen move, but the risk will be virtually gone when the fundamentals reach the point I mentioned earlier. I think FLC trades no higher than $15ish untill then. FLC still has all of its potential ahead of it here.... I want the $18 to $30 + bluesky run... which will be risk-free with 150 GOM rigs at work and $16-18 Oil.... No reason to sell FLC here - but no reason to be pounding the table, or adding to positions here either imho. FLC - buy under $8, or over $18 (VBG) ! I know that doesn't seem to make sense to most folks - but on a risk vs. reward basis it does. SDC is undervalued in comparison to RDC & ESV here and RIG is grossly undervalued... buy the deepwater drillers here as they are being spoken of negatively - the time to buy jack up and land drillers was a few months ago .... or a few months from now.... Anyone access Raymond James Natural Gas forecast analysis... ? Doug Fant, didn't you have someone talk to you about the Energy community talking about the ''possibility'' of near unheard of nat gas price levels potentially this winter ? Just as no one believed that we could see $18 Crude mere months ago - no one will believe where we find ourselves nat gas pricewise in the coming months - I will literally cut 10 years off of my working life - if I am correct. I am making a ''small business'' level ''bet'' that I am...but, I also have little downside having bought these stocks since Jan.... $4 mcf gas is a strong possibility and more than one analyst is talking the logical and mathematical case of $6, 7 + gas..... fwiw.- remember $8 to $18 crude didn't take long and nat gas as a commodity has different dynamics than crude oil - the utility/power generation aspects of the winter heating season. At best this play ''potentially'' has a once in a decade/lifetime investing opportunity and at worst - it is a sector ''double'' for the small cap value plays of off merely the sustaining of over $2.00 mcf gas...

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