Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services

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To: Brent Hogenson who wrote (45253)	5/21/1999 4:12:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) of 95453

Oil price forecasts from Dresdner and Goldman. Both see Persian Gulf gaining market share. Note that final quote from the Goldman report. Sounds just like super-bull Matt Simmons. thr 011 oil price-99 forecasts oil price forecasts revised london, may 21, irna -- dresdner kleinwort benson research has adopted a cautious approach in upgrading its oil price forecast to an average of 15 dollar per barrel (dpb) for 1999. while investment banker goldman sachs has suggested that rates will continue to surge by more than 100 percent by the end of the year. but both believe that oil-producing countries in the middle east are set to reassert their dominant position in the market at the expense of non-opec oil. ''as time passes by, we believe more firmly than ever that the next decade will be the decade of persian gulf oil,'' dresdner kleinwort benson said in its latest world oil report. it suggested that opec's market share was likely to rebound to 42 percent next year, the highest level since 1980, but remained cautious in its price forecast that rates would remain stable in real terms beyond 2000. its view was that growing volumes of oil from the persian gulf would mean oil prices will ''gradually become more and more affected by the long-run marginal cost of opec'' rather than more expensive non-opec oil. in its report, goldman sachs takes the argument further about the middle east's ever-increasing share of the world oil market, saying it was expected to pass 50 percent between 2010 and 2020. but its projection was that crude rates would rise to 60 dpb in the next 20 years, with the slide in non-opec production as western firms cut expenditure. ''without huge spending soon, the gap between declining supply capacity in non-opec and a modestly-rising demand trend would be more than 35 million barrels per day by 2010,'' goldman sachs warned. hc/ah end ::irna 21/05/99 16:03

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