Small tremors in credit markets: Does anyone care, or even notice for that matter?
We have experienced a fairly significant downturn in credit markets this week. High-grade corporate spreads are out 10-15 bps across the curve, while 10-year swap spreads (which, among other things, can be viewed as a proxy measuring banking-system risk) are 10 bps wider on the week, gapping out 5 bps today alone. To put this in some perspective, last summer swap spreads widened about 20 bps around the time of the Russian default (from August 14 to August 30). Things are feeling a bit shaky here.
I am a participant in this market; I'm paid to notice and comment on these things. Yet it never ceases to amaze me how little attention people in general pay to credit markets. True, we do tend to -- ahem -- lack some degree of transparency. But even guys like Cramer (*cough cough*), who should know better, seem to have nary a clue. (Let's see if b.fleck catches on :P)
So as you're gathering your financial news tonight and over the weekend, and you see that Treasurys had a pretty good week, with 30 yr yields dropping over 15 bps, bear in mind that all is not exactly well right now in bondland. We'll probably be ok, but I just wanted to let the folks on this fine board know that this subject bears watching. |
