William,
Although yesterday I said I expect a announcement of some type by June 15th, now I'm not sure. I ignored my own previous posts about the filing for a possible delay in the effective date for the registration of the secondary offering.
The unsubstantiated view is that the delay is in response to the old stockholder suit, by delaying a contract could be announce, the price rises, the secondary is offered, therefore the suit very little merit and can be settled with little cost.
If this is the case, then the offering won't come until August , based on the time that the SEC typically takes to approve. Thus, any delay would be past that time. This means that a product announcement would be later in the summer than early in the summer. This is all speculation, the best way to know short of bugging Lev's office is to see what's going on at the factory.
It would be worthwhile to pay some NI college student to report everyday over the summer , the number of employees and trucks going in and out of the factory. For a few thousand dollars, you could get a big jump on the rest of the market. I'm seriously thinking about this.
I'm not a day trader nor even a weekly trader. I'm just betting on a contract, and somewhat on the timing of the contract through options. I agree with that MMs often have the info before you do, certainly other people who trade on the info do.
Here's a question for you in general: Assume some significant event occurs and some people know but its not announced yet. For example a loss of a key contract or in the case of valence, a signing of the first contract. I've often seen that the those that know will dump or buy based on the news in the time between the event and the actual announcement. I've owned stock where the price has dropped 50% over a few weeks without any reason and then the news is announced. I got left holding the bag. I've also seen it go the other way. Do you see any pattern esp. with the volume on such trends ? What do you think is the best strategy in such cases ? If this happens with Valence what would you see happening, given that current volume is around 120K ? |
