Fred, We are reading the same sub-par earnings reports, though we may not be reading the same forecasts. You are calling for a slowdown in the second half of the year while the consensus of earnings growth is 17% this year. Since the first quarter was 9-10%, against a weak comparison, you won't get there with a weak second half.
I am saying that Win 2000 is a tweak and not something that will cause anyone to rush out and buy a new pc. Yes, folks will buy new pcs with Win 2000, just as they bought them with Tweak 98, but only on a replacement basis. There is nothing in Win 2000 that you have to have to remain competitive.
With sales continuing to decline in the PC business, I think my point is already a fact, not a prediction. And, beleive me, all the pundits saying this first time ever negative growth for pc sales is no big deal did not predict negative sales for 1999. Or 1998, for that matter. <g> |
