To All: Looking for a entry point. Only one concern will they have to refinance?
An excellent question. I can give you only a strictly personal opinion.
Forget about "refinance". That is based on stock value, which is eroding quickly. They'll try to sell more stock and debt, but it'll be a running battle to gain more than $1 net for every $1 of new money, due to stock price and confidence erosion. They absolutely have to make operational numbers work or they're headed for Chap 11 w/in two years.
I have been asking in different ways, e.g., is it possible for AMZN to survive even on a break-even basis?
Based on:
1) $1b to $2b in cash invested in interest-bearing accounts generating maybe $150 million / year
2) reduce non-production expenses (of course, you have to identify them first, and then want to!)
3) insiders want to preserve the company
4) a high quality site that can grow competitively by word of mouth
Otherwise, they need increased margin to reach breakeven before burn-out in 2-3 years. How will that happen is a question that even the management isn't prepared to answer.
The real question is, since the management and owners are wealthier than they ever imagined, do they wish to keep the company solvent? Are they able to?
I'm a big fan of in-your-face financial engineering, as long as it works, like Michael Milken in the 80's, which unleashed all kinds of creative capital, and did much more good than harm, IMO. To do that here they need to show they can make a profit and not live off seed corn.
FWIW, my opinion is if Bezos is really really smart, w. controlling interest in the co., a $1b in personal cash, and interlocking deals w. other IPOs, he can keep the company afloat, and only the stock will suffer in the general downturn that's coming. So far he's made several brilliant plays, and a couple goofball ones, like paying $650 million for $6 million in software last month.
My own entry point will be after a long confirmed consolidation and actual earnings at the PEG ratio of one. Not likely soon !
Hope this helps. There are others on this thread that have made millions on the stock and believe strongly in the company. Not me on either count. |
