Paul, I totally agree with you that TSIG investors should think in the 1-2 year time period. I posted on two subjects today, how the Babe Ruth cards were selling and the Lifetime Learning deal. How ever much we shareholders would like to believe that the Music Card is going to hit the market and two months later, untold millions of people are all going to buy endless number of CD's, reality isn't quite that bright. We can blame the company for painting too rosy a picture, but let's be adults and think for ourselves.
The good news is that the BR cards are selling. But there is going to be some ramp up time before the BR deal reaches its full potential. Mr. Stone talked about inertia in the schools. Inertia is everywhere! Imagine the BR league president trying to decide between selling candy bars or Music Cards. He knows what to expect with the candy bars. No surprises there. And what exactly is a Music Card? Maybe he'll let someone else be the first to try it. But once he hears that the Music Card sells and he hears one more complaint about those blankety-blank candy bars, he's ready to try the Music Card.
Likewise, there will be ramp up time with Lifetime Learning. Not every school, band, club, or team is going to jump on the bandwagon the first year, but some will. We already know the cards sell, so once the organization has a successful experience with the card, a repeat deal the next year is going to be easy. These groups don't want to look for a new fundraiser every year. The leaders would much rather fall back on a sure thing. Success breeds success. Word will spread. As a teacher just reminded me this evening, some schools have fall fundraisers and some do it in the spring.
What seems to be truly unique about the Music Card is the concept of residual revenue. The organization gets $5.00 if the card is reloaded. I can think of no other fund-raiser I've ever heard of that does this. This should be a powerful selling point. No effort on the organization's part but potential revenue out in to the future. It would be interesting to see someone's conservative projection of Lifetime Learning revenues assuming some schools won't participate at all, only a small club will participate at some schools, large groups such as bands will use the cards at some schools, and some entire schools will sell cards. Conservative projections increase the chances of our either being right or pleasantly surprised.
Regards, Suzanne
|
