Yaacov, greetings from North America! Do you think this to be the next regional war into which NATO will intervene?
Baku Alleges Moscow Brokered Chinese Missile Sale to Armenia
May 21, 1999
SUMMARY
On May 18, Azerbaijan registered an official protest with Beijing, claiming that China sold Armenia eight Typhoon missiles in a deal brokered by Moscow. Recent military cooperation among Moscow, Beijing, and Armenia reveals that the CIS strategic alliance has been dramatically redrawn. This development could result in an intensification of already existing regional conflicts between the former member countries of the Soviet empire.
ANALYSIS
On May 18, Azerbaijan registered an official protest with Beijing, claiming that China sold eight Typhoon missiles (with a range of 37 miles) to Armenia. Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Tofig Zulfugarov further claimed that the weapons were sold to Armenia by an unnamed joint Sino-Russian company following a joint visit by Russian Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev and Armenian Defense Minister Vargen Sarkisyan to China. Azerbaijani authorities said that there are two possible explanations for how this deal took place: either the Chinese government has no control over heavy arms sales or Beijing is violating UN Security Council resolutions, which prohibit the sale of arms to conflict zones. In its response to Azerbaijan's allegations, the Chinese embassy in Azerbaijan said that it had no information regarding any Chinese arms deliveries to Armenia.
The issue was also brought up at a meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Council of Defense Ministers, which is currently taking place in Armenia's capital, Yerevan. At the meeting, Armenian Defense Minister Vazgen Sarikisian denied Azerbaijan's allegation, saying it was "nonsense." Azerbaijan, which had made it clear earlier that it did not plan to extend its membership in the CIS Collective Security Treaty, is not participating in the meeting. Azerbaijan's Foreign Policy Adviser Vafa Guluzade said that his country would not participate given that the meeting was being held on Armenian territory. According to Guluzade, Russia has intentionally strengthened the CIS's security ties with Armenia, thereby alienating Azerbaijan. According to an Azerbaijani spokesman, further evidence of Russian intentions may be found in their selection of the site for the CIS security meeting.
If, in fact, the China-Armenia arms deal was brokered by Moscow, it would highlight the dramatic shifts taking place within the CIS, and the degree of hostility that they have fueled. Earlier this year, three out of the nine original signatories of the 1992 CIS Collective Security Treaty -- Georgia, Uzbekistan, and Azerbaijan -- made it clear that they did not intend to continue as members in the alliance. The three former Soviet republics said they were dissatisfied with Moscow's dominant position and its policies toward the CIS. On May 20, only six CIS countries -- Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan confirmed their readiness to extend their membership in the alliance. The original treaty will expire this month. Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, and Georgia have already joined in a security alliance with Ukraine and Moldova, two CIS members that never joined the Security Treaty in the first place. That alliance operates under the auspices of NATO's Partnership for Peace program.
In addition to the defections from the CIS, there are other indications that the alliance is crumbling. According to Guluzade, Russia had to deal repeatedly with Kazakhstan and Belarus's unwillingness at past CIS security council meetings to assist Russia with its military commitments in Tajikistan and Georgia. To counterbalance these tendencies that threaten to tear the CIS security alliance apart, Moscow is now openly reinforcing its politico-military ties with those CIS members that are still prepared to follow its lead. And as NATO becomes a central issue in the CIS division, Russia's confrontational behavior can only be expected to intensify.
On May 21, NATO announced that it was considering Georgia as a possible candidate for associate membership in the alliance. This undoubtedly would encourage Azerbaijan, a country that had previously asked NATO to station its forces on its territory, to seek closer cooperation with the Western alliance. Russia is now playing an old game among the former Soviet republics: divide and, if not conquer, then at least develop a pivotal influence. By openly reinforcing its alliance with Armenia through the brokering of missile sales, Russia is seeking to reestablish its influence in the region. By pursuing relations with Azerbaijan and Georgia, NATO is doing the same. As tension escalates between Yerevan and Baku, Moscow and Brussels may find the seriousness of their commitment to their proxies put to the test. |
