Hi Bill; Well as we concluded not many people would have the time
to do what I do , and I doubt even those who do would adopt my
style, actually I use several forms of TA , along with doing
a running count of the A/Ds during the day.
As far as a major move my system doesn't tell me how much the
short term move is going to be, only taht it's run it's momentum
just about to it's limit, and will reverse sometimes the moves are
not that much , other times they are good.
It's mostly just a Mo Mo system and depends a lot on the more
recent past patterns , I think TA on an index loses it's effective
as you take it back in time. The more recent patterns are the best
I like a pure Momentum indicator (12), and MACD 8-17-9 for the
short term trades , checking several time frames from 60 min
to 5min, that combined with watching the Head ( top caps in the
index ) you get use to when she is running out of steam , in
either direction, It's fast & If I don't catch her before she
rolls over very much then I wait for the other side.
It's easy to not be watching when the roll over happens and
I'v missed getting in a lot of good plays, but not knowing
how it might move I seldom try to chase it, buying or shorting
mid stream can be disappointing. In real time you have to
take in account the spreads, particularly on the short side.
As I don't often get shares to short unless I do a market order
and being in front of the curve a bit helps there, once the
roll over starts the spiders often skew both in price and the
spreads open up. The market makers are not dummies.
I'm trying to get a handle on a longer term trading style,
and have made some progress using the DMAs of 10-20-200
and how they relate to one another. So far it seems to work
but I haven't put a lot of my faith in it as yet.
A bullish situation is when the % of 10s is exceeding the 20s
and the 20s exceeding the 200s.., when that reverses say
the 200s are going up but the 10s fall below the 20s and the
20s fall below the 200s she is running out of steam.
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I like to see conformation of several signals including
the TA before I make a bet. If the DMAs are negative as they
now are then I'm more prone to try to catch a bounce to short,
more than a dip to buy, if the DMAs get going the other
way I look more for dips , how strong or weak the
DMAs are and also the A/D count "change" may have me buying dips
even in a slight down trend or shorting in an uptrend , but
that takes one getting use to their own system.
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It's so time comsuming I don't try to play options any more,
but I do leverage via margin, I think
option players need to specialize, well we all do, as
there are several ways to skin the cat, but trying to skin
it several ways at once don't work out too good.
Jim
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