This is an AOL post, the author gave me permission to post here.
He reads this thread, but for some reason has trouble posting here.
Subj: Forthcoming kits (1 of 2)
Date: Tue,11 Feb 97 09:36:50 EST
From: 1 of 2
Message-ID: <board-a-folder-005c6f56-msg-0027b72e-at-330932e6@aol.com>
Folks,
I talked to Aspasia Alexander yesterday, to find out more about what I previously referred to as "rumors" that the company would soon be making important announcements. Here is what I found out:
1)BREAST CANCER DETECTION KIT FEASIBILITY STUDY. The study is not complete, and no information has been released.
2)AAII TRADE SHOW: 4 new kits. Later this month, BIOI will attend a trade show in San Francisco, where they will introduce 4 new kits.
RESEARCH KIT: This kit will detect Polymer Chain Reactions. I'm not a technical type, and don't know what these are, or what the value of such a kit might be. I couldn't even askintelligent questions about it. If anyone reading this knows enough, I'd appreciate their explaining the kit on-line, and perhaps calling the company for more details.
RESEARCH/ PATIENT DIAGNOSTIC KITS: A DEPARTURE.
BIOI will be introducing three kits that can be used for research, but that may also have use for patient diagnosis. I didn't follow up on the concept as closely as I should, but if I understood Aspasia correctly, the plan is to introduce the kits now for researchers, and then to gauge the reaction to see if there would be a good patient diagnostics market. If there is, then (and only then), BIOI will seek FDA approval for use with patients. I believe that producing kits with potential direct
application to patients is a departure from anything BIOI has done in the past.
All three kits are distinguished by the fact that they can detect quantitatively how much disease is present, whereas current techniques only do "positive/negative" tests for whether any disease is present.
NON-HODGKINS LYMPHOMAS KIT: My wife, who is a family practitioner, told me that she has 2 patients with non-hodgkins lymphoma. Thus, the disease is widespread. I didn't ask Aspasia about this, but my wife and I speculate that such a kit might, for example, see how well a patient is responding to chemotherapy, and thus enable doctors to correctly adjust their treatment. If anyone out there in computer-land calls BIOI, you might want to follow up on this speculation to see if it is correct.
INFECTIOUS DISEASES (MINIMAL RESIDUAL): This kit is intended to detect minimal residual infectious disease in potential organ transplant patients. I believe the idea is this: in order to keep the patient from rejecting the new organ, doctors zap the patient's immune system. If there is residual infectious disease, it may rebound when the immune system is suppressed, potentially killing the patient. The kit would detect such disease. Again, if anyone out there in cyber-land can provide insight about
how valuable (financially) such a kit might be, I'd appreciate it.
CITOKINES: BIOI will be introducing a kit for detecting levels of citokines in various disease states. Citokines have something to do with DNA and RNA. (This is what Aspasia told me. I have no idea what cytokines are, or why the kit might be important. I'd appreciate anyone who can explain it.)
TO BE CONTINUED
Subj: Forthcoming kits (2 of 2)
Date: Tue,11 Feb 97 09:37:35 EST
From: 2 of 2
Message-ID: <board-a-folder-005c6f56-msg-0027ba47-at-330932e6@aol.com>
MY TAKE: GOOD BUT NOT UNEXPECTED NEWS.
Investor relations (i.e., Aspasia Alexander) has said all along that, while BIOI can maintain a 20% growth rate with its core business of kits for research use, the company will need one or more "home runs" in the patient diagnostics area in order to achieve the 40% growth rate we're all hoping for over the next 5 years.
I'm not totally educated on the FDA approval process, but if I understand it correctly, all three of the new "patient diagnostics" kits are a very long and shaky way from actual use with patients. IF there is strong interest THEN the company will seek approval, which they MIGHT get. Thus, these three new kits join the Breast Cancer detection kit as candidate home runs, which MIGHT affect the bottom line a few years from now.
I think, with the new European operations becoming streamlined and efficient, with the new Japanese contract, and with savvy management, that BIOI is likely to make or beat 40% growth over the next year. Thereafter, such a high growth rate will depend on approval of something like one of these kits.
What do you-all think?
Steve Kramer |
